Editor's Note: This article is part of an ongoing RANE series on the geopolitical impacts of water stress. The first installment of this series provided a broad overview of how the unequal distribution of freshwater shapes geopolitical patterns. Other installments have examined the impacts of water stress on the global economy , Europe , China , the Sahel region of sub-Saharan Africa , and Israel . The growing effects of climate change and water scarcity will increase tensions between Central Asian states in the years to come, and while greater regional integration and cooperation are likely in the short to medium term, the risk of violent state conflict will increase in the long term.