While whatever government emerges victorious from Nepal's Nov. 20 election will be fragile, making policymaking tougher and heightening political instability, whoever winds up running Nepal will struggle to maneuver between India and China.

• Nepal will hold elections for all 275 members of its house of representatives and for 220 provincial assembly seats in its second general election since the adoption of the federal democratic republic system in 2008 and a new constitution in 2015. The two main contenders are the governing alliance led by Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba's center left Nepali Congress (NC) party and the alliance led by former Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli's left-wing Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML). 
• In a sign of the complexity of Nepali politics, the coalition headed by the NC also includes Communists: the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Centre, the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Socialist and Rastriya Janamorcha. Other left-wing coalition members include the socialist Janata Samajwadi Party, center-left Loktantrik Samajwadi Party and Communist; the right-wing Rastriya Prajatantra Party also belongs to the governing coalition.

Recent wins by the ruling coalition in local elections and the opposition's struggles in the polls suggest that the ruling coalition stands a good chance of winning the Nov. 20 vote. In the event of a win by the Deuba alliance, Nepal will continue its rapprochement with India while trying not to overly upset China. The ruling alliance won more than two-thirds of seats contested in local elections May 13, while Oli — who has served as prime minister on three different occasions between 2015 and 2021 — has faced political troubles recently. Under Oli, Nepal reached several deals with China deepening bilateral economic and political ties; when Deuba took office, he reached out to India. Deuba's outreach led to an increased tempo of diplomatic exchanges with India, including reciprocal visits by the countries' prime ministers and the signing of energy and infrastructure development deals. In 2022, Nepal and India agreed to resolve a border dispute through a bilateral mechanism. The rapprochement positions Nepal to gain in the long term by selling surplus electricity generated during the monsoon season to Bangladesh using India's grid. Good relations with China will remain paramount, however, given significant Chinese investment in Nepal. This means that even if the NC and its allies are reelected, Kathmandu will seek to maintain a balanced foreign policy that keeps close ties with India without alienating China. In the unlikely event that Oli's alliance wins the election, China would emerge as a more important partner for Nepal, souring ties with India and hampering bilateral cooperation, particularly in the energy sector.

• China has been the largest source of foreign direct investment in Nepal for the last six years. Under Oli, Nepal agreed in 2019 to be a part of the strategic Belt and Road Initiative. The ideological similarity between the Communist parties of Nepal and China contributed to the close relations between the two countries when Oli was in power.
• Nepal's relations with India worsened under Oli. In 2015, India imposed an unofficial economic blockade on Nepal to protest parts of the new Nepali Constitution concerning the rights of Nepalis living close to the Indian border. The blockade resulted in a humanitarian crisis in landlocked Nepal. Oli doubled down on his anti-India rhetoric, releasing a map in 2021 that showed some disputed territories as belonging to Nepal.
• Pushpa Kamal Dahal, the leader of Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Centre, a main ally of the ruling coalition, visited India on July 15 and met with the leaders of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party. While the visit was likely for personal electoral reasons, as many Hindu nationalists in Nepal view the BJP favorably, it suggests policy continuity should the Nepali ruling coalition remain in office.

The ideological heterogeneity of the two main competing alliances suggests either would produce a fragile government prone to political crises — but no matter who wins, Nepal will have limited room for maneuver between India and China even though voters might resent the two larger countries. Deuba's alliance includes social-democratic, Socialist and Communist parties, while Oli's alliance includes center right, Communist, and pro-monarchy parties. The sheer number of parties alone in each alliance means that regardless of who wins, the new government will struggle to satisfy the competing interests of every member of its alliance and to settle on foreign and domestic policies. Disputes over matters including power sharing and the distribution of Cabinet positions, Hindu nationalism and sovereignty could well bring about the eventual government's collapse. 

• Nepal has experienced growing right-wing pressure to do away with federalism, a demand by Rashtriya Janamorcha, one of Deuba's alliance partners. Meanwhile, members of the Rastriya Prajatantra Party Nepal, a member of Oli's alliance, have called for a constitutional amendment to make Nepal an explicitly Hindu nation. These issues could lead to fissures within the government and societal unrest. 
• National sovereignty is another polarizing issue in Nepal. Competing pressure from China and India and the domestic perception of Nepal's sovereignty being undermined has boosted nationalist sentiment. As a landlocked country, however, Nepal is entirely dependent on neighbors India and China for essential imports and for its ability to send exports to markets, limiting Kathmandu's room for maneuver.