The arrests of teachers union leaders in Jordan risks fueling unrest in the typically politically stable country against a government the United States relies on for its regional counterterrorism efforts. On July 25, Jordanian security forces arrested over a dozen key members of the Jordanian Teachers Syndicate and charged them with corruption, incitement, financial irregularities and criminal activities. Forces also raided the union’s offices and shut them down for two years. Nasser Nawasreh, acting head of the Teachers Syndicate, was charged with incitement specifically over a speech he gave on July 22 that sharply criticized Prime Minister Omar Razzaz’s government. A government spokesman said that the arrests were conducted to prevent the union from staging planned sit-ins and demonstrations that risked harming “the state’s essential services and their functioning.” On July 29, some teachers protested the arrests and office closures in downtown Amman, prompting another crackdown by security forces. Small demonstrations are also likely to continue to pop up in Jordanian cities. 

The boldness of the powerful teachers union will test the Jordanian government’s established strategy of proactively quelching unrest by containing powerful political opposition groups. The crackdown by security forces could itself be a trigger for social unrest, given the union's size and popularity. The Jordanian government’s forced closure of the union’s offices is intended to serve as a message that Razzaz’s government has the power to force the union, as well as any other opposition group perceived to be a threat to political stability, in line with the government.

• Jordan’s government has previously shut down political offices of movements it deems threatening by being able to potentially extract costly political or economic concessions. In July, Amman forced a full dissolution of the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood after shuttering the transnational Islamist movement’s office in 2016. 
• With over 100,000 members, the Jordanian Teachers Syndicate is a key civil society group that has proven capable of starting disruptive unrest. The union also has alliances with the most vocal political opposition groups in Jordan, including the Islamic Action Front, and has led some of the largest protests in the country since the Arab Spring.

Jordan's poor economic situation, however, will not only drive further teacher demonstrations but challenge the government’s ability to crack down on them. Pandemic-related austerity measures enacted in recent months have exacerbated simmering tensions between the union and Amman, as public sector workers (including teachers) did not receive promised bonuses
According to the International Monetary Fund, Jordan’s economy is expected to contract this year for the first time in decades due to pandemic-related losses in tourism and services revenue. 
The Teachers Syndicate claims Amman has not honored a deal it negotiated in October for a 50 percent pay raise. Without such a pay raise, the union has argued that the cost of living in Jordan has become too high for teachers — a trend that will only worsen amid the country’s deepening economic crisis.

While unlikely to snowball into unmanageable levels of unrest, such protests have the potential to immediately disrupt U.S. regional policy should it successfully prompt political change. 

• Jordan is an established, critical counterterrorism partner to the United States, as well as a major recipient of U.S. economic and security aid. Washington also uses its strong bilateral relationship with Razzaz’s current administration and the monarchy to conduct intelligence operations across the region.
• The Teachers Syndicate, however, has increasingly voiced its dissatisfaction with Omar Razzaz’s government, arguing it has prioritized the needs of the United States and its other external allies over the needs of Jordanians.