Preliminary results of Russia’s constitutional referendum suggest the amendments will easily be passed despite opposition groups potentially disputing results, thus setting the Kremlin on a course to prepare its political system for a future without President Vladamir Putin. With 55 percent of votes already counted, Russia’s electoral commission announced July 1 that 76.6 percent of voters have approved the proposed constitutional amendments. A turnout of about 65 percent projects a high level of legitimacy for the vote, which will support the Kremlin’s democratic narrative and limit public backlash. 

The implementation of these amendments will allow Putin to remain in office for longer. But even more importantly, the changes will introduce subtle adjustments to the Russian political system that reduces the power of individual leaders. In their initial shape, the constitutional amendments sought to limit the role of future presidents by imposing a harsher term limit and reducing the president’s influence over particular portions of the cabinet. The proposed changes include more clearly defined roles for separate councils to make the president, the Russian State Duma and these councils more dependent on each other. Fears that an unfit successor after Putin could undo the power structure that Putin himself has built is what initially informed these amendments. The addition of an amendment to reset Putin’s already served terms also means that this succession will possibly be postponed by another six or twelve years, leaving Russia’s political establishment with more time to prepare.

Through the referendum, the Kremlin achieved popular legitimacy for the changes. Technically, the Russian government was not required to organize a referendum to make these changes. The powers harbored by Russia’s judiciary, executive and legislative branches are sufficient to push through such amendments by law. Still, opposition groups in Russia will likely continue to contest the results of the referendum, and have already published much more negative results in their own exit polls. The opposition narrative is unlikely to mount a realistic challenge to the constitutional amendment, though it will likely contribute to growing popular dissent over political and economic shortcomings of the Russian government.