Peace talks in Afghanistan have entered a presumptive gridlock after Afghan President Ashraf Ghani ordered the military to go into "offensive" mode and resume attacks against the Taliban, reversing a previous order in which Afghan forces were instructed to be in "active defense" against the militant group.

• Ghani's May 12 announcement comes in the wake of two large-scale attacks that have shaken Afghanistan, including the storming of a maternity hospital in Kabul that killed 24 civilians, as well as suicide bombing of a funeral procession in eastern Nangarhar province that also killed at 24. 
• The Taliban has denied involvement in both attacks, while the Islamic State claimed the Nangarhar attack, but not the one in Kabul.
• President Ghani and Vice President Amrullah Saleh, however, have blamed the Taliban for both attacks. Afghan National Security Advisor Hamdullah Mohib also recently stated that there was "little point" in engaging in peace talks with the militant group as long as violence continued.

Kabul's offensive puts a hard stop to the intra-Afghan peace process outlined in the U.S.-Taliban peace deal.

• Talks between the Afghan government and the militant group were set to begin on March 10 following the signing of the landmark U.S.-Taliban agreement in late February.
• But Afghanistan's ongoing political crisis following the country's contested presidential election, as well as tense negotiations between the divided Afghan government and the Taliban, have since bogged down this process. 
• Progress on intra-Afghan peace talks will likely remain gridlocked until Afghanistan is able to form a government, and both sides agree to a ceasefire (or at least a decrease in fighting) and move forward on prisoner swaps. 

In response to the high-profile attacks, the United States notably took the Taliban's denial at face value, and has called for Afghanistan and the Taliban to "cooperate to bring the perpetrators [of the attacks] to justice." Washington's willingness to publicly take the militant group's word over that of Ghani's government highlights the deepening rift between the United States and its allies in Kabul. 

• The United States agreed to gradually withdraw all forces from Afghanistan as a part of its agreement with the Taliban, and has been doing so (ahead of schedule) despite a lack of progress on intra-Afghan talks. 
• Since then, Washington has repeatedly expressed frustration with Afghanistan's inability to form a government and urged both it and the Taliban to engage in meaningful dialogue, though to no avail. 
• In March, the United States cut $1 billion of aid to Afghanistan, and said it would conduct a review of all other projects and programs in the country to determine whether it would suspend an additional $1 billion of aid in 2021. 

With decreasing U.S. support, Afghanistan's shift to a more aggressive stance against the Taliban is unlikely to significantly shift dynamics on the battlefield. No other coalition partner is in a position to fill the military and monetary aid supplied by the United States, leaving Afghanistan in a more vulnerable state. 

• The United States has been reluctant to directly engage the Taliban in combat since it began withdrawing troops as part of its deal with the militant group, and has agreed to only take defensive action in response to attacks.
• Shrinking U.S. support will further weaken the ability of Afghan security forces to counter the Taliban's momentum on the ground. 
• The longer the fighting continues, however, the weaker the Afghan government's negotiating stance against the Taliban will become.