What Happened

On March 10, the Russian State Duma approved a bill on constitutional amendments that would legally open the door to extending President Vladamir Putin's long reign in Moscow. Among the amendments accepted into the bill was a proposal to reset the terms served by presidents in the past, effectively allowing Putin to run for two more terms in the future should he chose to do so. The Federation Council has already approved the amendments, and federal states and the Constitution Court are widely expected to do the same in the coming days. President Putin is anticipated to sign the bill into law on March 18, after which the amendments will then come to a popular vote tentatively scheduled for April 22.

Why It Matters

By discounting presidential terms served before these new changes take effect, the amendments have the potential to define Russia’s political landscape over the next decade. While Putin has previously played down his intent to extend his reign at Russia's helm, these new constitutional changes officially pave the way for him to do just that. Whether he will actually run in 2024 is still not guaranteed, though having the option to delay his departure by six or twelve more years could itself postpone a lot of anticipated uncertainties about Russia’s transition under a new president. 

The ruling United Russia party and its allies currently have a strong electoral hold on Russia's political system. But in the absence of centralized authority with Putin as kingmaker, the competition between different factions in Russia’s industrial sectors, security organizations and political system risk devolving. Having President Putin remain in power until 2030 or 2036, however, would effectively help improve short- and medium-term political stability in Russia by further delaying the anxiety and uncertainty around what a post-Putin era means for Moscow.

Background

The proposed changes will limit future Russian presidents to a total of two terms throughout their entire lifetime. The current constitution, by contrast, only limits presidents to two consecutive (and not total) terms. Putin has exploited this rule in the past by switching between terms as prime minister and president. But with his second consecutive term ending in 2024, this limit would have forced Putin to let a different president hold at least one six-year term before he could return to the office — at which point, he would be 77 years old.

The move to enforce overall stricter term limits on future Russian presidents is also part of a larger effort to reduce the impact of an individual president after Putin by reforming the balance between different branches of Russia's government. This would provide a level of political stability by reducing the ability of an individual president to single-handedly derail Russia’s future.