Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro appeared to signal his support for a social media campaign to organize nationwide protests against the country's Congress last week when he shared a viral video on his WhatsApp account that calls on his supporters to take to the streets on March 15 to "reject the enemies of Brazil." The campaign apparently sprung up spontaneously among Brazil's far-right supporters in late January amid rumblings of frustration by Bolsonaro's loyalists with congressional calls for impeachment and opposition in Congress to parts of the president's legislative agenda.
While the movement is basically leaderless, much of what's been posted on social media has threatened violence against members of Congress or advocated for its dissolution and a return to authoritarian rule under Bolsonaro (a military dictatorship ruled Brazil from 1964 to 1985).
Bolsonaro's apparent endorsement of demonstrations against the authority of what is supposed to be a co-equal branch of government has raised alarm not only on the political left, but also among establishment conservatives who are committed to democratic principles. Former President Henrique Cardoso criticized Bolsonaro's support for efforts to intimidate Congress, as did Joao Doria, the conservative governor of Sao Paulo. Some conservative-leaning newspapers also criticized Bolsonaro on their editorial pages. In response, Bolsonaro tweeted on Feb. 27 that his critics were making "creeping attempts to disrupt the Republic."
Why It Matters
This effort to pressure Congress to fall into line could potentially backfire on Bolsonaro. Public opinion in Brazil is deeply divided, with recent polling putting Bolsonaro's overall approval rating at 48 percent. The business community also is deeply divided, with some leaders of Brazil's major corporations lining up with Bolsonaro's supporters while others support his critics.
Most importantly, the fact that elected officials from the center-right have been willing to break publicly with Bolsonaro and defend the legitimacy and constitutional roles of both the Congress and the independent judiciary suggests they will not be intimidated into backing Bolsonaro on the issues that precipitated the crisis. The question of potential impeachment is a proximate cause of the threats from Bolsonaro's supporters, but it also is seen in Brazil as a means of intimidating legislators into supporting Bolsonaro's wider agenda, particularly a tax reduction bill that is expected to be introduced in Congress soon.
Uncertainty about how the demonstrations will play out sets up March 15 as a potential major inflection point for Brazil's financial markets. If the protests turn into a major spasm of violence, they could have a further negative impact beyond the market selloff already being seen from the coronavirus outbreak.
Background
Social and political unrest has been rising across Latin America generally as economic growth lags. Brazil has seen this unrest even more than most countries in recent years because of its status as a big commodity exporter, most importantly to China where economic growth has been slowing. The pressure on commodities from the coronavirus outbreak has worsened the existing trend. This is driving intense political polarization and social class tensions because of Brazil's extreme level of income inequality.
