What Happened

Turkey is scrambling to keep its Syrian strategy afloat after a Russian-linked airstrike killed 33 Turkish soldiers on the southern frontier of the Idlib front line. The Feb. 28 attack has sparked a new level of urgency in the ongoing Syrian government offensive against Idlib province, which has been at the center of the country's ongoing civil war and related refugee crisis. The incident also highlights how Turkey’s current strategy is failing to deter Syrian military advances in the region, as Damascus, Russia and Iran feel increasingly emboldened to attack Turkish military forces head-on.

What It Means for Turkey

Turkey has been steadily running out of counters to stem the Syrian-led offensive in Idlib, which — should it fall — would not only send a new flood of refugees across Turkey's southern border (adding to the roughly 3.6 million refugees already in Turkey) but also embolden Syria to prepare military campaigns to push Turkey out of its other occupation zones along the border. Losing those areas of influence would jeopardize Turkey's anti-Kurdish strategy in Syria, as Ankara fears that a border under Damascus' control would do little to keep Kurdish militants in the region from continuing to launch attacks inside Turkey itself.

For now, Turkey is using its armed forces to target Syrian government troops to try to stem the military offensive itself, though this is more of a time-buying tactic than a sustainable solution. What Ankara really needs is a clear and consistent signal from its major allies strong enough that it convinces Russia to push for de-escalation in the region sooner rather than later. Neither Russia nor Turkey wants the Idlib confrontation to spread beyond the province. Indeed, both have working military relations in other parts of Syria, in addition to sizable economic and diplomatic ties. But as evidenced by the recent airstrike, Moscow is gambling it can continue to support a Syrian offensive in Idlib without rupturing relations with Turkey elsewhere, or sparking any substantial action from Europe or the United States.

What's Next

With Russia upping the pressure, Turkey is now aiming to cajole Europe into action with a long-threatened, potent piece of leverage: Syrian refugee flows into Europe. Focusing on the refugee crisis signals to Europe that Idlib is its problem as well as Turkey's, and that Ankara will not host refugees on the Continent's behalf without additional economic or diplomatic support in Syria. But unleashing the refugees risks escalating the already simmering tensions between Ankara and Brussels over issues such as Turkey’s invasion of northeast Syria in 2019, offshore drilling in the eastern Mediterranean and Turkey’s human rights record. And even if the Europeans offer more support, it still may not be enough to outweigh Russian support for Syria, let alone prevent the roughly 1 million refugees in Idlib from moving into Turkey.

Turkey is also trying to enlist the United States' help. But with the White House wary of further engagement in Syria, on top of its already tense relations with Ankara, the Trump administration seems unlikely to take a stance in the conflict beyond supportive statements. Without substantial European or U.S. support, however, Turkey will be forced to face the increasingly daunting task of stemming Russian-backed Syrian forces alone, and with fewer ways to do so.