What Happened
Russian President Vladimir Putin has set in motion his first real steps toward creating a political system that he hopes will maintain the country's course beyond his rule. Following Putin's address to the Federal Assembly, the Russian government of Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev announced its resignation Jan. 15. Putin has already selected Medvedev's successor, submitting the candidacy of the head of the Federal Tax Service, Mikhail Mishustin, for Duma approval Jan. 16.
The announcement of the resignation followed a meeting between Putin and Medvedev after Putin's Federal Assembly address, during which he advocated for several changes to the Russian Constitution relating to the powers of the presidency and the Duma. These would include limiting presidents to two terms total. At present, presidents can only serve two consecutive terms, but the law doesn't specifically rule out multiple nonconsecutive terms (a loophole Putin himself took advantage of). In another change, parliament, not the president, would hold the sole power to select and appoint prime ministers and Cabinets. Under current law, the president selects a prime minister, subject to Duma approval.
Why It Matters
These changes reflect the maturation of the Putin regime after 20 years into a more resilient, less personality-driven structure able to maintain his political legacy. They indicate that Putin is working to lessen the role of personalities in parliament in favor of party rule of the legislature. The changes carry some risk, however, in that Putin's party could theoretically lose control of parliament.
With Medvedev's resignation, Putin can put in place a team of ministers charged with enacting the announced constitutional changes. Kremlin watchers have observed a decline in Putin's trust in Medvedev for some time; for changes like these as critical to his aims for Russia, Putin will want a team whose loyalty and strength he can completely rely on. Mishustin has the additional advantages of being an economically savvy administrator who has not accrued significant ill will from the public. This will help him navigate a potential referendum on constitutional changes in 2020 or 2021 and 2021 Duma elections, all while contending with severe economic challenges.
A Managed Transition
The developments represent just the beginning of a long-term transition for Russia. For Putin to shape a system that outlasts him, many more steps will be required — and success is not guaranteed. First, a new government to support Putin's ambitions will have to be put in place, and the planned constitutional changes will have to pass. Additional changes to the responsibilities of the parliament and government, or the presidency, may be required ahead of 2024 to guarantee the United Russia party itself dominates Russian politics rather than whoever is serving as president.
The process can be expected to spark competition between Russian political factions, perhaps generating opposition from individuals who had hoped to win the presidency and so dominate the country. Perhaps more important, United Russia will have to devise a careful strategy to assure its control of the new structure. More power to parliament could backfire unless the party maintains strong control over parliament at a time when electoral challenges to United Russia have been on the upswing. Continued disruptions of opposition activities and offering Russian voters a number of alternatives within the United Russia-allied spectrum of parties will be key components of those efforts.
