The dust is beginning to settle in the aftermath of the Jan. 8 Iranian ballistic missile attacks on two U.S. military bases in Iraq. With no reported casualties among U.S. personnel and Iran's indication that it has now concluded its military response to the death of Gen. Qassem Soleimani in a U.S. strike, the door is open for the short-term de-escalation of the brewing confrontation between the two countries. The United States could yet decide to respond militarily to the Iranian attack on its bases, but with Washington seeking to avoid stumbling into a war with Iran, the lack of U.S. casualties makes it more politically feasible for the White House to opt for a nonmilitary response, such as additional sanctions.
Nevertheless, even if the United States elects to stand down, a prospect that is still not certain, the potential for further military clashes will remain significantly elevated over the long term. Two issues drive this risk. First, Iran and its proxies are unlikely to cease their attacks across the region, whether directly against U.S. assets and personnel or against U.S. allies. The U.S. economic sanctions that are driving this aggressive Iranian strategy will remain in place and may even intensify.
Iraq, in particular, could present a theater for action, as Iranian-allied Iraqi militias have also been galvanized by the recent U.S. strikes and likely will be keen to seek retribution. If an attack by those militias kills a U.S. soldier or contractor in Iraq or Syria, the risks of escalation to a direct military exchange between the United States and Iran would again climb. After all, the United States will hold Iran responsible for the actions of some of its allied militias, especially the mostly Shiite Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq.
Second, beyond escalatory military exchanges, Iran's continued development of its nuclear program and its removal of limitations on enrichment and stockpiling significantly elevates the potential for longer-term military confrontation. Although Iran insists that the periodic acceleration it has undertaken with its nuclear program is reversible, the United States and Israel will be more likely to seriously consider military strikes against Iran's nuclear program to ensure Iran does not approach a nuclear weapons breakout stage too closely.
The existence of these triggers for potential escalation and the atmosphere of tension that will linger between the two adversaries keeps the long-term risk of a military confrontation alive, even if their current face-off goes no further.
