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Iran has vowed to seek revenge against the United States for the Jan. 3 drone strike in Baghdad that killed Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the prominent commander of the Quds Force, a unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. In response, national and local law enforcement agencies around the world have boosted security. Private companies and organizations have also adjusted their operations to account for the greater threat, most notably by pulling their U.S. personnel out of Iraq, especially after the U.S. Embassy insisted that citizens leave the country. Retaliation from Iran or one of its proxies is extremely likely, but where and how effective the attack(s) might be is less clear. A look at the recent history of Iranian actions indicates that despite its global networks and ambitions, it is a far more formidable threat in the more permissive environment of Iraq and the rest of the Middle East. The physical and cyber actions of Iran during 2019 show that its ability to strike against regional rivals, such as Saudi Arabia, or global rivals, such as the United States, is substantial in the Persian Gulf region.

Hostile Environments

Outside the region, Iran is still a threat, as demonstrated by its repeated attempts to attack its rivals in Europe, East Africa, Eastern Europe and even Southeast Asia. Iran's intelligence assets and its operatives with the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah are constantly at work conducting surveillance on targets around the globe — especially in places not typically associated with the Iranian threat — in preparation for future attacks. But they have struggled with operations in hostile environments, showing that they need to improve their clandestine terrorist tradecraft. Because of these difficulties, their track record outside the Middle East in the 21st century isn't nearly as impressive as their record within the region. Nonetheless, they are trying, and occasionally landing blows successfully, especially against soft targets in places where their attack cycle activities aren't being watched for and detected. 

For companies and other organizations associated with the United States and concerned about their vulnerability to retaliation abroad, the following list provides examples of Iranian and Hezbollah activity in recent years. It is by no means comprehensive, but it shows the kinds of targets its operatives are pursuing and where they've been caught. It also illustrates how Iranian attacks are preventable and how those who are looking for the threat are more likely to spot it and spare themselves.

Timeline of Plots Outside the Middle East

2003, U.S.: A New Jersey man working for Hezbollah surveilled potential civilian and government targets in Boston, New York and Washington. He was arrested in 2019 after a series of interrogations. His arrest was likely a sign that U.S. authorities were revisiting old cases in an effort to prevent any kind of Iranian or Hezbollah attack.

Oct. 11, 2011, U.S.: The U.S. Department of Justice announced that two men had been charged in New York with taking part in a plot directed by the Quds Force to kill Saudi Arabia's ambassador to the United States, Adel al-Jubeir, on U.S. soil.

2012-17, France and Germany: Officials arrested an operative working for the Quds Force and accused him of conducting surveillance on a French Jewish academic in Paris and a pro-Israeli German politician in Berlin.

Feb. 13, 2012, Georgia: A Georgian driver for the Israeli Embassy in Tbilisi noticed a suspicious object attached to the undercarriage of his vehicle, which turned out to be a grenade. Security personnel defused the device, and nobody was hurt in the incident.

Feb. 13, 2012, India: A sticky bomb detonated on a vehicle belonging to an Israeli diplomat in New Delhi, injuring four people.

Feb. 14, 2012, Thailand: Police launched a raid on Iranian nationals preparing explosive devices in Bangkok.

June 20, 2012, Kenya: Two Iranians were arrested for suspected terrorist activities in Mombasa, fueling suspicions that they may have been targeting U.S. and Israeli interests there.

July 7, 2012, Cyprus: Authorities arrested a man of Lebanese descent and accused him of plotting an attack on an Israeli tourist bus there.

July 18, 2012, Bulgaria: A Hezbollah operative detonated a suicide bomb next to a tour bus carrying Israeli citizens in Burgas, Bulgaria, killing six and injuring 32. This is the only post-9/11 Iranian-linked plot that resulted in fatalities.

2015, U.K.: Authorities raided four properties in northwest London where operatives linked to Hezbollah had stockpiled thousands of disposable ice packs filled with ammonium nitrate, a common ingredient in homemade bombs.

Dec. 8, 2016, Kenya: Authorities arrested two Iranians and a Kenyan caught conducting surveillance on the Israeli Embassy in Nairobi.

2017-18, U.S.: Two Iranian operatives conducted surveillance on Jewish residents and Iranian dissidents in the United States, traveling back and forth to Iran before being discovered and arrested.

Jan. 16, 2018, Germany: Police raided residences and offices belonging to suspected operatives of the Quds Force who were linked to plots to attack Jewish and Israeli targets.

June 30, 2018, France: European authorities thwarted an Iranian-backed plot to attack a dissident conference in Paris.

Oct. 3, 2018, Denmark: Authorities closed roads and ferry services to stop a suspected Iranian plot to attack members of a dissident group.

July 24, 2019, Uganda: Police arrested a Lebanese national at Entebbe International Airport who was carrying out surveillance on U.S. and Israeli targets and recruiting people in the country for an attack.

Oct. 23, 2019, Albania: Police said that they had discovered an Iranian paramilitary network planning attacks against exiles in Albania.