In the face of the continuing offensive on Tripoli by its main rival, the Libyan National Army, Libya's internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) announced Dec. 19 that it had activated the security and military cooperation deal it had reached with Ankara on Nov. 28, paving the way for increased assistance from Turkey. Additional Turkish involvement in Libya, however, will complicate the country's already complex conflict, making its resolution even more difficult.

A Libyan Bargain Supports Turkey's Regional Strategy

Turkey has had a close relationship with the GNA since its formation, something explained by Ankara's good relations with Islamist groups in western Libya — such as the country's branch of the Muslim Brotherhood — and the commercial interests of Turkish companies in the region. That relationship has grown dramatically during 2019 as Turkey sent military supplies, equipment, and advisers and specialists to support the GNA and the militias fighting the Libyan National Army (LNA) after its leader, Khalifa Hifter, launched an offensive on Tripoli in April. 

Turkey gained what it considers a major victory from that relationship in November when it signed two deals with the GNA. For Ankara, the more important deal was a maritime border agreement that Turkey has used to extend its claims in the eastern Mediterranean Sea westward, near the Greek island of Crete. For the GNA, the more important deal was on security. The GNA traded the maritime agreement — which damaged its relations with European countries — to give Ankara a vested interest in the GNA's long-term survival against the LNA, which would not recognize the maritime agreement.

The War for Tripoli

Turkey's support is critical for the GNA just now. Hifter and the LNA have received equipment and financial support from the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Since early September, the LNA has also employed Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group, who have become increasingly active on Tripoli's frontlines. The extensive support these allies have given Hifter has reinvigorated the Tripoli offensive in recent weeks and, more importantly, given his forces the military advantage over the GNA. 

While Hifter's backers have shown little concern about violating a U.N. Security Council arms embargo on Libya, the West has proved less willing to violate the embargo so blatantly even though it is the GNA that enjoys international recognition. Though Turkey has broken that taboo, its support had been relatively limited compared to what Hifter and the LNA have been receiving.

But since the Tripoli offensive began in May, Turkey has substantially boosted its support for the GNA, improving the ability of the militias supporting it to withstand the LNA's attacks. Turkey has transferred arms and equipment, including Turkish-made BMC Kirpi armored vehicles and Bayraktar TB2 UAVs, to the GNA, helping it defend its airspace against the LNA air support. (The LNA has received UAE support, obtaining Chinese-made Wing Loong II UAVs and the Russian-made Pantsir air defense system from its Gulf ally.)

The security deal will formalize the Turkish-GNA relationship and could pave the way for even more military equipment from Turkey. So far, Turkish officials have said Ankara has no immediate plans to send combat troops to Libya, but left the possibility open. Sending Turkish troops would require Turkish parliamentary approval, which is not a given since several rival parties to the governing Justice and Development Party have opposed the security deal with Libya.

Troop deployments aside, as with Russian involvement, Turkey's growing military role in Libya has made the conflict there even more complex. Since the outsiders with the main role in the conflict, Egypt, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, are not invested in the U.N.-led mediation process in Libya, that process is unlikely to resolve the issue in the near term. Germany still seeks to organize a new international Libya conference in 2020, but the GNA and LNA have ruled out direct talks, and poor relations between Turkey on one side and Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates on the other make a solution from that quarter unlikely at present. With Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan planning to meet to discuss Libya in the near future, Turkish-Russian cooperation might help resolve the situation — making other interested outside parties like the United States extremely nervous.