What Happened: Many Algerians are likely to reject the legitimacy of newly elected Algerian President Abdelmajid Tebboune, who won office Dec. 12 with 58 percent of the vote. The country's electoral authority said voter participation stood at 41 percent, the lowest for any Algerian presidential election. Tebboune served as prime minister for three months in 2017, and in three Cabinet positions under former President Abdel Aziz Bouteflika, minister of housing and urban planning, minister of communications and culture, and minister-delegate for local government. He soundly beat the other four presidential candidates, all largely institutional and familiar political figures, though Algerians do not trust official participation rates or vote counts in their country's tightly controlled elections. Thousands of Algerians showed their displeasure with the process in nationwide anti-election protests the night of Dec. 12 and throughout Dec. 13.
Why It Matters: A win for any of the five presidential candidates would have angered Algeria's emboldened Hirak protest movement thanks to the candidates' connection to the former government and to Hirak's demands for an all-new electoral process and more meaningful anti-corruption measures. Many Algerians will continue to reject the election results, sapping the Tebbounne government's legitimacy and likely encouraging more demonstrations. If Algerians continue to gather in the streets for weeks on end, the military and interim government will have to decide whether to use force to disperse the demonstrations — the government largely has eschewed violent tactics for 10 months — or whether to initiate a dialogue that allows the opposition to vent its dissatisfaction. Tebboune has sought to emphasize tensions between himself and the military and political establishment — namely, the arrest of his son several months ago, who now awaits trial, accused of graft — but will never persuade the opposition he is one of them. Instead, they will always see him as being close to the chief of the armed forces, Ahmed Gaid Salah, who is the strongest political arbiter behind the scenes.
What to Watch: In addition to the possibility of violent crackdowns on demonstrators, the main source of potential instability in 2020 will be the incoming government's efforts to put the economy on the right track. Rising economic pressure was one of the reasons Bouteflika resigned under pressure from the streets in April. Algeria's economy continues to stagnate, with energy exports — just about the government's sole source of revenue — having fallen 12.5 percent this year.
To improve the economy, Tebboune's government must attract investment to, and reform, the energy sector. He must also cut spending in the face of lower energy revenues without further enflaming popular sentiment by cutting benefits.
The parliament and the interim government's Cabinet recently passed a new hydrocarbon investment law supposed to help open up the historically closed-off country to more much-needed foreign investment, but the issue remains a hot-button topic because of Algeria's sense of having been manipulated by France, in particular by France's historic control of its oil sector during and immediately after the colonial period. Tebboune has already positioned himself as a champion of Algerian rights versus France as he tries to reduce popular anger about the country's plan to open further to foreign investment in 2020. He will struggle to reduce the sense that the government is more concerned about foreign investors than it is about economically stressed Algerians.
Tebboune's determination to protect Algerians' access to their benefits and subsidies lest even more Algerians become upset with the government will help in this regard. The interim government already has promised it won't touch subsidies and benefits while it slashes public spending by 9 percent in 2020, though this will worsen Algeria's long-term structural economic instability over time. But though Tebboune campaigned on promises to address low wages and to slash taxes on the lower classes, actually accomplishing this once he confronts the realities of governing is another question.
