What Happened
Initial optimism, in the end, only presaged a false dawn. Where Ukraine and Russian-backed separatists had previously withdrawn from the line of contact and swapped prisoners, fundamental differences between the two sides are clouding the chances of significant progress toward ending their conflict during the Normandy summit, which will bring together Kyiv, Moscow, Paris and Berlin in France on Dec. 9.
In his most recent statements over the past week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called for the creation of integrated security forces — dubbed a "municipal guard" — in the separatist-controlled areas of eastern Ukraine that would include elements of the Ukrainian armed forces. Zelenskiy is expected to push this controversial plan at the summit, potentially creating a new bone of contention between Kyiv and Moscow. Previously, the Ukrainian president said the sides could not resolve the political status of Donbas unless Russia agrees to a cease-fire and further prisoner swaps at the summit, although Russia has maintained it cannot enter such an agreement as it insists it is not a party to the conflict. Kyiv, furthermore, repeated its call on the United States and the European Union to maintain their sanctions against Russia until Ukraine fully regains its sovereignty over occupied areas.
Why It Matters
There have always been significant obstacles to implementing the Minsk agreement, a framework to definitively end the Ukraine conflict, and the Steinmeier protocol, which defines the political status of the separatist areas — meaning the pessimism ahead of the latest round of talks should hardly be surprising. Reestablishing direct Ukrainian control over the Ukraine-Russia border in Donbas, for example, presents some major practical challenges, while Kyiv's demand that all foreign countries — Russia, in essence — withdraw their forces and material support as a prerequisite to political progress weakens the chances that the sides will implement steps to end the war. (Moscow, meanwhile, continues to deny that it is providing any support to the separatist forces.)
Concurrent negotiations between Ukraine and Russia on a new natural gas transit deal to Europe may also cast a shadow over the Normandy Summit, as the countries' inability to find common ground on that separate issue could further muddy the waters over the military conflict. Ukraine, moreover, has indicated that if the sides make no meaningful progress at this Normandy summit, it may have to explore options other than continued negotiations. While this may not lead directly to a resumption of military offensives in eastern Ukraine, it could, at the very least, entail that low-level hostilities persist.
Background
The Minsk agreement, which dates to 2014, has gone through numerous iterations on how exactly the sides will halt their fighting and reach a definitive peace. When Zelenskiy became president of Ukraine, he did so on a platform of improving relations with Russia, but reality has illustrated the hindrances he faces in achieving this. Pragmatic cooperation between Ukraine and Russian-backed separatists late this year, in which both sides withdrew forces from the front line and conducted a series of prisoner exchanges, managed to pave the way for a new Normandy summit (the first since Zelenskiy became president). Several months on, however, the mere organization of the summit does not signal that any meaningful progress will occur.
