What Happened
Britain's House of Commons overwhelmingly rejected the Brexit plan offered up by Prime Minister Theresa May on Jan. 15, defeating the agreement that her government had negotiated with the European Union 432 votes to 202. Despite the stinging loss, the most lopsided for a sitting British government in a century, May said she will not resign and promised to hold talks with other parties to find a new plan that the Commons can accept. First, however, she must survive a vote of no-confidence from the opposition Labour Party on Jan. 16.
Why It Matters
The no-confidence motion represents May's most immediate challenge. She stands a good chance of retaining her office, because while many fellow members of the Conservative Party rejected her Brexit plan — in fact, 118 of them voted against the government — they don't necessarily want to oust her as prime minister, thereby opening the door for an early election that the opposition could win. Should May lose the no-confidence vote, members of Parliament will have 14 days to appoint a replacement. If no new prime minister is appointed by then, a general election would follow. Beyond the no-confidence motion, May will face pressure from members of her own party to resign, but they cannot force her out. She survived a leadership challenge from the Conservatives in December, which means they cannot seek another no-confidence vote for 12 months. As a result, the decision to resign is entirely in her hands.
If May manages to keep her job, she will have several options about what to do next. She can take the existing deal back to negotiators in Brussels, hoping to obtain concessions that would make it more tolerable for the Commons. After that, she could ask the Commons to vote again. But the European Union is unlikely to make significant changes to the current deal, and the ideological composition of the Commons would still make it hard for May to win approval, even with an updated plan. The only obvious benefit of holding a second vote on a similar Brexit plan is that, since the March 29 Brexit date would have drawn nearer, the stakes would be higher, and the pressure on members of Parliament to avoid a disorderly Brexit would be stronger. But this is a risky strategy with some unforeseeable consequences.
Alternatively, May can try to negotiate a Brexit plan with the opposition that the Commons would find easier to support, a possibility she suggested in the aftermath of her plan's defeat. This course of action could lead to a softer Brexit, since Labour wants the United Kingdom to stay in the EU Customs Union, and some members of Parliament from both major parties want to remain in the single market as well. The problem with this strategy is that the British government would still have to go back to Brussels and negotiate a new exit plan with EU officials who, in turn, would have to consult with the bloc's governments.
The British government could also call for an early election. Two-thirds of the House of Commons would have to agree to an early election, but this margin is achievable: Labour has been requesting an early vote for months. A general election in the current atmosphere would amount to an unofficial referendum on Brexit, as the parties would campaign on their preferred future relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union, and some may even offer voters the promise of a second Brexit referendum.
Either of these options — a renegotiated plan, an entirely new plan or an early election — would take time. This situation increases the chances that the British government will seek to postpone the United Kingdom's exit. Delaying Brexit would require unanimous support from the 28 governments of the European Union, but the bloc is likely to support an extension, especially if it is a short one that ensures that the United Kingdom does not have to participate in the elections for the European Parliament, which are scheduled for late May. EU sources have unofficially said that the bloc would be willing to move the Brexit date from late March to early July. After the Jan. 15 vote, the president of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, asked the British government to "clarify its intentions" as soon as possible.
Two extreme options remain. One would be to accept the defeat of May's Brexit plan and move on with no-deal plans without asking the Commons to vote a second time. This seems unlikely considering the significant problems that a disorderly Brexit could create for the British economy, and the fact that there is still time for the government to come up with alternative strategies. Another option would be to hold a second Brexit referendum. But this also seems improbable without first holding a general election, as the official position of both the Conservatives and Labour is to oppose a second referendum.
