What Happened
The man at the center of a political tug of war between the United States and Turkey is finally going free. A Turkish court sentenced Andrew Brunson, an American evangelical pastor who has been in prison on terrorism charges since 2016, to three years in prison on Oct. 12 — only to order his release on time served. The court further lifted an overseas travel ban for Brunson, paving the way for his return to the United States and prompting a celebratory tweet from U.S. President Donald Trump.
Why It Matters
The significance of Brunson's release is manifold: The pastor's fate was one of the few issues in which Ankara possessed leverage over Washington, but Turkey's decision to release him indicates that the country wishes for some U.S. overtures on other issues. And ahead of next month's midterm elections in the United States, Brunson's release is likely to buoy Republican lawmakers with large evangelical bases of support, as they can portray his release as an example of the White House's deep involvement in evangelical interests.
Though Turkish leaders have portrayed the release as a mere judicial matter, Ankara ultimately permitted Brunson to go free because it wishes to calm its fragile economy after the Turkish lira fell in part because the United States imposed sanctions on Turkey in August over the pastor's continued detention. Not only will Brunson's release end the pretext for further U.S. sanctions on Turkey over the pastor’s case (though Turkey could face scrutiny in the future over other files like Iran-related sanctions) but it will also facilitate continued U.S.-Turkish economic trade and investment.
Turkey is also seeking continued cooperation in Syria with the United States, as well as assurances that Washington is doing what it can to assist Ankara with concerns related to national security, such as the Gulen movement and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). The United States already has demonstrated its hesitation at extraditing Fethullah Gulen, a Pennsylvania-based Turkish theologian whom Ankara has accused of masterminding a July 2016 coup attempt, but it could provide hints of flexibility on the Islamic scholar. At the same time, the United States has already expressed increased concern about PKK-linked attacks in Turkey. The United States will also seek Turkey's commitment to enforcing U.S. sanctions on Iran-related trade.
Background
Before the Oct. 12 court hearing, a number of signs suggested that Brunson's release was imminent, including that U.S. officials told reporters that they anticipated the pastor's release based on negotiations between U.S. and Turkish officials. Some of the witnesses against the pastor subsequently shifted their testimony, while pro-government newspapers dispensed with the "terrorist" moniker for Brunson in favor of the more neutral "pastor." Taken together, Brunson's releases points to the success of the behind-the-scenes negotiations, as well as the value Ankara ultimately places in its ties with Washington.
