Israel and Gaza could be heading toward a war neither side wants. On July 20, Hamas militants and Israel Defense Forces (IDF) exchanged fire in an incident that left at least one soldier dead and several more wounded. In response, IDF announced the start of a military operation against the Hamas militant group in the Gaza Strip. After a week of heightened tensions between Hamas and Israel, the Israeli Cabinet held an emergency meeting to decide on a course of action.
Hamas and Israel have been moving toward a significant clash for some time. The two sides engaged in a large-scale exchange last weekend when Israeli airstrikes responded to Hamas rockets, and Gazan civilians protested Israeli border controls. In part, the conflict is driven by Gaza's dire economic situation, which has worsened after Qatar and the United States decreased aid. Poor economic performance has caused activists in Gaza — as well as rival militant outfits such as the Palestinian Islamic Jihad — to launch protests and arson attacks against Israel over the past few months. The demonstrations are intended to bring media attention to Gaza's plight, to pressure countries to provide humanitarian aid and to punish Israel for 10 years of perceived siege.
However, the attacks have only angered Israel's public and compelled its leaders to take an even harder line against militancy in the Gaza Strip. Threatening settlers and citizens in Israel's south is unacceptable to the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The Israeli premier's political legitimacy is currently under threat from his ultra-Orthodox partners, but a conflict in Gaza could help rally politicians around the flag.
Still, all sides involved would rather avoid a repeat of the last major war in 2014. Hamas does not want to provoke another wholesale dismantling of the Gaza Strip's crumbling infrastructure and Israel does not need the diplomatic fallout. But while there are plenty of reasons to limit the conflict, actions from individuals or politicians looking to appear strong to their constituents could cause the conflict to grow as large as the one in 2014, or larger in the worst case. Further deaths among Gazan civilians, IDF soldiers or Hamas militants could compel one or both sides to fight a major war that none of their leaders truly want.
