The efforts of France and the United Nations to bring Libya's squabbling factions together have stagnated, and the divides that split the country appear to be deepening. The announcement June 25 by the Libyan National Army (LNA), which controls the eastern half of the country, that it would hand control of two key oil ports to the National Oil Corporation (NOC) based in Bayda marks a notable shift, especially given that the company's authority to export oil is not recognized internationally. Until now, LNA Field Marshal Khalifa Hifter, in an effort to burnish his nationalist credentials, had allowed the Tripoli-based version of the NOC to sell oil shipped through the eastern export terminals that his forces control on international markets.
Hifter's decision to give the eastern branch of the NOC control of that output could be a stratagem to gain leverage in the internationally sponsored unity talks in Libya. At the same time, by empowering the rival company, Hifter could be attempting to placate his supporters in Eastern Libya who are pushing for the country to move toward federalism as a solution to its political divides. Whatever his motives, the move has drawn strong criticism from the Government of National Accord, which has the support of much of Western Libya.
Just last week, the LNA recaptured the oil ports of Ras Lanuf and As Sidra from militia forces led by Ibrahim Jadhran. Hifter has accused third parties of supporting Jadhran's takeover of the terminals. While it is unlikely that Jadhran had the direct support of the Government of National Accord, which enjoys wide support in Western Libya, it is almost certain that part of the establishment in that half of the country had a hand in the attack.
Hifter's decision to hand Ras Lanuf and As Sidra to the Bayda-based NOC could be viewed in the context of the ongoing East-West split: In other words, a move to begin consolidating his control over the oil economy in Eastern Libya, which possesses two-thirds of the country's oil reserves and much of its production infrastructure. It is unclear, however, whether that company will win the international approval it would need to sell Libya's oil. Previous efforts by the eastern NOC to export oil were met with a legal offensive by the Tripoli-based NOC, which won international support for its case. In one incident, the U.S. military intervened to halt the export of an oil cargo shipped by the eastern NOC.
As long as political talks remain at an impasse, the status quo in Libya — with the GNA enshrined in the west and Hifter essentially controlling the east — will hold. And without a political solution agreed to by all parties, the more entrenched each side will become, perhaps even to the point that Libya could eventually move toward a de facto partition along east-west lines. In that light, another factor in the LNA's decision could be that it recognizes that it cannot take control of the West militarily and that institutionalizing itself in the East is its best course of action.
