If the May 15 results from India's Karnataka state elections offer a preview of the country's 2019 national contest, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have reason to be optimistic.
What were the election results?
According to official numbers, the BJP won 46 percent of the seats in the Karnataka state assembly, while its main competitor, the Indian National Congress (INC), won a 33 percent share. Neither party earned the 113 seats needed for a parliamentary majority, meaning they will both be trying to enter an alliance with the third-place party, the Janata Dal (Secular), to form the next government.
Why does Karnataka matter to the BJP?
Karnataka — home to the city of Bangalore, which is often referred to as India's Silicon Valley — plays a key role in the BJP's ongoing strategy to expand into south India and become a pan-Indian party instead of one confined to the Hindi heartland in the north. The party controls the federal government and governs 21 of 29 states, but of India's five southern states, the BJP has only ever governed in Karnataka. If the BJP can wrest control of the Karnataka government from the INC, it can use the state as a gateway to expand into other southern states.
Electoral success in Karnataka will give the party a leg up on the national stage as well. Right now, the BJP is the largest party in the upper house of India's parliament but doesn't command a majority, meaning it has struggled to pass reform legislation. But the more state seats a party wins, the more representatives it sends to the parliament's upper house, so the BJP could soon have more parliamentary leverage.
Why does Karnataka matter to the INC?
Though the INC was a political superpower during India's nascent years as an independent state, the BJP has steadily gained ground over the past three decades using an approach focused on Hindu nationalism, as well as anti-corruption and, in recent years, Modi's popularity. Before the recent elections, the only two major states under INC control were Karnataka and Punjab. Karnataka served as a testing ground for the INC's anti-Modi political platform ahead of 2019 national elections, and the party's failure to beat out the BJP in the state means it is now going into the national election season with its back to the wall.
What happens now?
The INC's Chief Minister Siddaramaiah has already resigned. Now, the BJP and INC are negotiating with the governor of Karnataka, Vajubhai Vala, who will appoint the next government. The party that can demonstrate it has the alliance of enough Janata Dal (Secular) legislators to form a majority will gain control of the regional assembly.
What do the elections in Karnataka mean for India?
Regardless of who ultimately forms the next Karnataka government, the BJP's strong showing indicates that Modi is still extremely popular, even in areas where the BJP is less politically dominant. And the continuing strength of Janata Dal (Secular) highlights the potent force of India's smaller parties (often dismissed by national analysts) in their respective regions. The INC, meanwhile, is facing an uphill battle. With the national election campaign season effectively underway, the party is at a distinct disadvantage compared to Modi's BJP.
