The European Union and the United Kingdom are still struggling to find a solution to the Northern Irish question. In December 2017, the two parties agreed that the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland would stay open after the United Kingdom — of which Northern Ireland is a part — leaves the bloc in March 2019. However, they did not specify how exactly that would be achieved. British Prime Minister Theresa May met with her Irish counterpart, Leo Varadkar, on Feb. 12 in Belfast to discuss the issue. And while both leaders have expressed interest in keeping the border open, a solution remains elusive. During the meeting, Varadkar admitted that enforcing the December agreement will be tricky.
The United Kingdom faces a seemingly unsolvable dilemma. It wants to leave the EU customs union, which establishes a common external tariff for all goods entering the bloc from abroad. Afterward, London could then sign free trade agreements with the rest of the world, something that the British government has identified as essential for generating economic growth after leaving the union. But that plan also means that some kind of controls would be required at the border between Northern Ireland, which would no longer be in the customs union, and the Republic of Ireland, which would remain a part of it. This would jeopardize the peace agreement in Northern Ireland that calls for an open border.
London has suggested that the border could remain open through the combination of a comprehensive trade agreement with the European Union, continued alignment with union customs rules and the use of technology to identify the origin of products crossing the border. But Brussels is unconvinced and is calling on London to present a detailed plan of the exact relationship it wants to have with the European Union after Brexit. On Feb. 9, the union's chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, said that London's decision to leave the customs union would make Irish border controls unavoidable. According to Barnier, the European Union is still waiting for London to make a choice.
Barnier's statements came at the end of a week in which the United Kingdom and the European Union negotiated the terms of the post-Brexit transition period. London is asking for a transition period of roughly two years, during which time the United Kingdom would still be part of the union's single market, to give companies and households time to adapt to the post-Brexit reality.
The European Union hopes the transition period will be approved by March, but obstacles remain in the negotiations. For example, Brussels wants the United Kingdom to give residency rights to EU citizens arriving in the country during the transition period, something that London opposes. Barnier has warned that the transition period is not a given, and that there are still substantial disagreements between London and Brussels. During the transition period, the Irish border is likely to remain open. But Brussels, London and Dublin will need to have a concrete plan in place to keep it that way once the United Kingdom has left the EU customs union for good.
