Protests will return to Russia this Sunday. On Jan. 28, opposition figure Alexei Navalny will launch a multi-city series of demonstrations to call for a boycott of the presidential elections in March. Navalny, who has been barred from running, is urging voters to stay home even if they're planning on voting for an alternative to Russian President Vladimir Putin who, despite the expanding list of candidates running against him, is almost guaranteed a victory. But eighteen years after gaining power, Putin's hold over the country is growing tenuous. Russia is likely slipping back into a recession, its banking sector is going through a financial crisis, its regional governments are weakening and dissatisfaction is rising among the country's rich and poor alike.
Over the past year, Navalny has served as a mouthpiece for the aggrieved, exposing the lavish lifestyles of Russian elites and championing anti-corruption campaigns. Of the more than 1100 protests across Russia in 2017, two-thirds were connected to economic and financial woes. But Navalny has struggled to unite dissatisfied Russians behind his political movement, and Sunday's rally will be the first in a series designed to create a unified movement against to the Kremlin.
Anti-establishment sentiment may also be compounded in the coming weeks, buoyed by the U.S. Treasury Department's so-called "Oligarch List." The report, an exploratory document released as the United States considers expanding sanctions against Russia, will single out the country's most powerful and reveal their wealth, their assets and more. A consolidated list of Russian elites could fan the flames of anti-corruption sentiment among citizens and protesters, particularly because the country's poverty rate is now rising faster than it has since 1998.
The Kremlin, for its part, has responded in a scattered fashion. Regional leaders have been ordered to tailor their own responses to rallies. Many leaders in protest hot-spots — such as Tyumen, Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg and Volgograd — have issued permits for rallies in an attempt to keep them peaceful. But Moscow and St. Petersburg are the biggest challenges for both Navalny and the Kremlin. With protests planned in Russia's major cities, major clashes between demonstrators and the security services cannot be ruled out. In recent weeks, Navalny's various headquarters were repeatedly raided by police, and his employees have been continually harassed. Authorities in Russia's largest cities have denied permits for gatherings in central or culturally significant squares, offering alternative locations on the outskirts.
Navalny's boycott call is a major concern for the Kremlin. Though Putin's victory in March is all but a foregone conclusion, he will lack a firm mandate if voter turnout is abysmal. To avoid this, the Kremlin has launched a major campaign to get voters to the polls by offering free iPhones, holding concerts near voter venues and promising to expand social spending after the election. Even if the election's outcome is already written, Russia's streets and squares will be alive with protesters ahead of the election. And as citizens attempt to make their voices heard, voter apathy could be the people's greatest weapon.
