(Stratfor 2018)

A year after the inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump, protectionist trade measures are getting their day in the sun. Though such measures would likely have been proposed no matter who were in office, they are particularly meaningful for Trump's administration and policy goals. Trump's administration will act on a recommendation from the International Trade Commission (ITC) to impose a set of tariffs on imported washing machines and solar panels. Though the tariffs stem from an ITC investigation done under section 201 of the 1974 Trade Act launched at the behest of two solar companies in May 2017 — and not the Trump administration — they are in line with Trump's stated position on trade.

On Jan. 22, it was announced that a tariff of 20 percent would be imposed on the first 1.2 million large residential washing machines imported to the United States and that a 50 percent tariff would be imposed after that. After two years, those numbers will decrease to 16 percent and 40 percent respectively. For solar panels, a 30 percent tariff will apply and will be reduced by five percent each year for the next four years in accordance with the ITC's recommendation.

Though Trump and his administration were not obligated by law to enact the ITC recommendations, his campaign trail rhetoric did make it something of a foregone conclusion that he would do so. Trump's stated goal of safeguarding U.S. jobs and businesses through protectionist trade policies is perfectly in line with the proposed tariffs. Although this tariff could increase the number of U.S. solar manufacturing jobs, it will probably also cause a loss of jobs in solar installation and projects. And abroad, the main countries affected — such as China, South Korea and Malaysia — are already unhappy with the decision. Several challenges at the World Trade Organization can be expected in the coming weeks, which will be difficult for the United States to overcome.

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