The Turkish government and its forces are moving ever closer to an apparently imminent attack on Kurds in the Afrin region of northwest Syria. On Jan. 19, the Turkish government announced that Russian forces were making their way out of the region as Turkish troops and their rebel allies make the final preparations for an assault. Though the Kurdish forces in Afrin reportedly attempted to strike a last-ditch deal with the Syrian government to share control of the city, it appears that their proposal was rejected. Artillery fire on the region that began last week has increased, and the final convoys of rebel fighters aligned with Turkey have arrived. As the attack approaches, Turkey's actions demonstrate its determination to deny Kurdish forces a foothold in Syria.

The forces stationed in Afrin are largely Syrian Kurds from the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). Turkey considers the group terrorists with connections to the banned Kurdistan Workers' Party, which has been fighting an insurgency in Turkey for decades. But Turkey's NATO ally, the United States, has heavily relied on Kurdish forces for its fight against the Islamic State, providing the YPG with training and weapons. On Jan. 17, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said that the YPG and Syrian Democratic Forces were in Syria to block escape routes for Islamic State fighters and urged all sides to focus on the fight against the Islamic State. But on Jan. 19, Turkish Defense Minister Nurettin Canikli announced that Turkey's military operation in Afrin had effectively begun, saying that calls to focus on the Islamic State were meaningless because the group had already been driven out of both Syria and Iraq.

Though the withdrawal of Russian forces has not been confirmed, Ankara's apparent determination to move forward with its operation has forced Moscow to make a choice. Because Russia would prefer to prevent the Turkish operation, a decision to withdraw Russian soldiers would highlight Moscow's interest in preserving its strategic partnership with Turkey. It is also possible that Russia has secured a concession from the Turks in exchange for withdrawing, such as further cooperation in Syria. Though Russia is keen to avoid an escalation with Turkey, it will also likely urge the Syrian government not to respond dangerously. But, regardless of what its allies would prefer, Turkey has made it clear that it is determined to deny Syrian Kurds a foothold near the Turkish border.