(Stratfor 2018)

The European Union's 2014-2020 budget period is about to end, and regional divisions are already surfacing as member governments and institutions begin preliminary talks about negotiating the next one. The United Kingdom's departure from the union in 2019 is expected to leave a budget gap of about 9 billion euros per year, a substantial loss considering the last annual EU budget was about 160 billion euros. On Jan. 8, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said that, after Brexit, EU member states will need to contribute more funds to the bloc's budget, which will begin in 2021 and last at least five years, than they have in the past.

All nations contribute the same percentage of their gross national income to the budget at present, but Juncker called on member countries to increase their contributions to meet certain high-level priorities for the European Union, such as addressing migration, the eurozone and climate change. He also spoke against reducing funds set aside for EU cohesion and agriculture. It's not surprising that Juncker, as the head of the supranational institution that drives the process of European integration, is calling to increase member contributions. As Brexit approaches, the commission is focused on strengthening the European Union, and it needs money to do that.

However, not all member states are in agreement over the future of the budget. The European Union spends a considerable amount of its budget on stimulating economic growth, a large part of which (34 percent of the EU budget in 2015) goes to the bloc's poorer regions. As a result, some wealthier countries, such as Germany and France, are net contributors to the EU budget, while others, such as Poland and even Portugal, are net recipients.

Most of the net recipients are eastern or southern European countries, and are naturally supportive of Juncker's proposal. After his speech, both the Hungarian and the Polish commissioners spoke in favor of a budget increase and called on the commission to present a more ambitious proposal for the next budget framework in May. On the other hand, net contributors — mostly northern and western European countries — are more skeptical of increasing member contributions. New Austrian EU affairs minister Gernot Blumel spoke in favor of a "smaller but more efficient Europe," while German commissioner Gunther Oettinger also took a cautious approach, saying the bloc's next budget should be "slightly bigger." German foreign minister Sigmar Gabriel suggested an approach that focused on spending more on the "right things."

The various statements came during what was little more than a preparatory meeting, and the European Union's formal negotiations for the next multiannual financial framework are still months away. But given that members have expressed divided opinions so early on in the discussions, the debates will likely grow more and more heated as they continue through 2018 and move into 2019.

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