Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has emerged victorious in two Indian state elections, one of which was key to the prime minister and to the party. On Dec. 18, officials announced the BJP won 99 seats in Gujarat in the west, where 92 seats would be sufficient to govern. But the BJP appears to have lost support in the state overall: In 2012, it won 116 seats, while in the 2014 national elections it won all of the 26 seats available. In northern Himachal Pradesh, meanwhile, the BJP looks to have won the state from the opposition Indian National Congress (INC), with BJP candidates winning 44 of 68 seats. Together, these results are a decisive victory and another step toward the BJP's stated goal of turning India saffron — the party's color.
The Gujarat state elections are important both for the BJP and its leader. The western state has long been a BJP stronghold, even back in the 1980s when the political party was still in its fledgling period. Modi himself is from Gujarat, and he made his reputation as the state's chief minister. Indeed, the backing that Modi received from businesses in the 2014 general elections was linked to the hope that he would reproduce on a national scale the business-friendly reforms that had made Gujarat so economically successful. Thus, a reversal in Gujarat would have been not just a victory for the INC in the BJP's home territory, but also a vote of no confidence against Modi himself.
Against this backdrop, the Gujarat results must be seen as a muted victory for the BJP. While the party performed strongly in urban centers, it had a weak showing in rural areas. This goes against expectations: Before the elections, media attention focused on how the BJP's Goods and Services Tax was hurting Gujarat's urban populations. The fact that the countryside turned on the party should give BJP strategists pause for thought, as farming unrest has been growing across the country and Gujarat could be part of this wider trend. Despite the setbacks, however, the BJP has retained control of a key state going into 2018 and the 2019 general elections.
Himachal Pradesh elections, by contrast, were of less national importance but are still a victory for the saffron party. With a population of 6.8 million (compared to Gujarat's 60 million), Himachal Pradesh is a sideshow. Still, any state victory is useful for the BJP. In 2016 and 2017, the party and its allies managed to take control of several key states in its northern heartland — most notably the gargantuan Gangetic Plain states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, but also smaller northeastern states such as Manipur and Nagaland. Himachal Pradesh, then, is the latest domino of India's north to fall to the BJP.
With the ruling party consolidating its gains in the north, its next major test will come in April 2018, with the Karnataka state elections. Another large state with some 60 million people, Karnataka contains the affluent technology hub of Bangalore and would be a notable gain for the BJP. With Hindu nationalism at its core, the BJP has achieved its greatest successes in the Hindi Belt of the Gangetic Plain. Stretching its appeal southward will be a challenge and a good test of whether the BJP is able to represent all of India, or just the populous northern heartland.
