The future of Northern Ireland — part of the United Kingdom — has become a major obstacle to a Brexit agreement. The British government has said that as part of Brexit it wants to leave the EU single market, the area in which goods, services, capital and people move freely in Europe. This would enable the United Kingdom to honor several Brexit promises, such as gaining full control of its immigration policy. But it also creates a problem with Northern Ireland: Some kind of border control with the Republic of Ireland, which would remain an EU member, would have to be introduced to oversee goods moving across the common border, but border controls are prohibited under the Good Friday Agreement — a peace deal which ended years of conflict in Ireland.
As a possible solution, British Prime Minister Theresa May and the European Union discussed Dec. 4 a compromise by which the British government in London would maintain "regulatory alignment" with the European Union, potentially allowing the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland to remain open after Brexit by granting Northern Ireland a special status. But, the suggestion that Northern Ireland could be granted special status has angered those forces in Northern Ireland who advocate a closer relationship with London, such as Northern Ireland's Unionist Party (DUP). The DUP fears the status would lead to Irish unification, which it vehemently opposes. In response, the party has threatened to withdraw its support for Theresa May's government.
The threat has put May in a triple bind: She needs to negotiate an open border to maintain compliance with the Good Friday Agreement and to avoid backlash from the Irish government in Dublin, but in light of DUP complaints she can't do so by granting special status to Northern Ireland. Neither does she have the option of leaving the EU single market without Northern Ireland, especially since several members of the British ruling Conservative party have promised that the entire UK would leave the single market. And she's running out of time. On Dec. 14 and 15, EU member states will assess the status of Brexit negotiations and determine whether to authorize the start of trade talks.
But making Northern Ireland leave the single market alongside the rest of the United Kingdom creates problems as well, because nationalist forces could see it as a violation of the Good Friday agreement, which in turn could trigger demands for a unification referendum or even the return of sectarian violence in Northern Ireland. That could trigger demands for a unification referendum or even the return of sectarian violence in Northern Ireland. Eventually, something will have to give. London could soften its demands for separation from the European Union, for instance by keeping the whole country in the single market. But this would frustrate voters, who want London to assert more control over British sovereignty. May could also overrule the DUP, which could lead to early elections. Finally, she could risk Northern Irish security by compromising the Good Friday Agreement. Complicating matters further, other regions such as Scotland will be watching the negotiation closely, as they stand ready to make demands of their own depending on how the situation plays out. As a result, the Brexit process is not only tearing at the seams of the European Union but could also jeopardize the United Kingdom's own territorial integrity.
