(Stratfor)

Russia's provinces may receive a new security detail that will protect — and closely monitor — provincial governors and the business elite. Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed on Nov. 6 a bill that would make his National Guard the protector of provincial leaders and prominent regional businesses. Provincial leaders and the business elite have traditionally drawn their security units from various sources: personally hired guards, local police, federal security services (FSB) and Interior forces (MVD), to name a few. But if the bill is passed, it would place Putin's personal army — directly loyal to him — over leaders and businesses to protect them, but to also watch over and potentially jail them. To add insult to injury, provinces will have to pay for the protection out of local budgets. 

Recent political and economic upheaval has caused Putin to question the loyalty of Russia's provincial leaders, business class and security services. Under the Russian federal government's hefty tax requirements, many of its 89 provinces are drowning in debt and several regional governments are tottering toward bankruptcy. The debt problem caused many provincial leaders to refuse the federal government's demands for funds and support. In response, the Kremlin purged 19 governors for failure to pay taxes, poor economic performance, and for condoning regional opposition protests. In addition to trouble with provincial leadership, the stagnant economy has forced hundreds of failing regional banks to close, to merge, or to nationalize with Russia's Central Bank.

Placing the National Guard as the new caretakers of provincial leadership is an indication of Putin's lack of trust in the Kremlin's greater security services. Putin created the National Guard in 2016 to compete with the country's powerful security forces, particularly the FSB, placing as its chief his former bodyguard, Viktor Zolotov, a loyal and trusted confidant. The 400,000-strong force drew on loyalists plucked from the MVD, special police forces and various other security services. Recently, the National Guard has sought expanded power, applying for its own cyber units and responsibilities within the Russia-led international security bloc: the Collective Security Treaty Organization. The expansion efforts are yet another sign of Putin's growing mistrust in Russia's security services, which could potentially rival his own power or exacerbate regional conflict with the Kremlin.

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