Those who refuse to learn from history are doomed to repeat it, but the Ukrainian government is taking steps to avoid that. Demonstrations that began in central Kiev on Oct. 17 continued into Oct. 18, and hundreds of protesters have set up dozens of tents in the city center and outside the parliament building. The protests, led by former Georgian President and Odessa Gov. Mikhail Saakashvili, are calling for Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko to crack down on corruption.
Around 3,000 police officers were deployed to preserve public order, although no tents will be forcibly removed according to Ukraine's national police chief. The police chief emphasized the goal of protecting citizens' rights to express their will, but also the importance of learning from old mistakes.
The old mistakes refer to those that led to the Euromaidan protests. Saakashvili supported erecting tents in the style of this 2014 movement, most likely in an effort to garner sympathy for his cause by emulating past demonstrations. In 2013, then-president Viktor Yanukovich ordered a police crackdown on protests, which led to mass tent demonstrations in Ukraine's central square. The events ultimately cost Yanukovich his seat of power. The Euromaidan uprising ushered in Poroshenko's government and shifted Ukraine's strategic focus from Russia to the West. The movement also sparked Russia's annexation of Crimea and the ongoing rebel insurgency in eastern Ukraine.
Despite the appearance of tents in Kiev, the current protests appear unlikely to start another movement. First, the demonstrators have dwindled from thousands of people on Oct. 17 to just a few hundred on Oct. 18, many of whom were mobilized by opposition leaders and politicians rather than grassroots activists. Second, the protestor's primary demands — to adopt anti-corruption court legislation, to strip lawmakers of their immunity, and to enact an electoral law that would make party lists open — are already being deliberated by the country's parliament. The legislation protesters are demanding could come as soon as this week and, unless new grievances arise, appease the protest movement.
Although the protests are unlikely to foment a second Euromaidan movement, they could still present a challenge to the Ukrainian government. There's no guarantee that the parliament will pass the legislation protesters are demanding. Even if they do, it may not be enough to appease them. There's also a much greater risk of violence at the demonstrations if they attract more aggressive opposition or ultra-nationalist groups: Three people were injured during minor clashes at the demonstrations on Oct. 17.
Russia, which would benefit from a weakened Ukrainian state as well, could seek to exploit any instability the protests cause through propaganda campaigns. Even though the protests only have a minor political impact now, that could always change as they unfold. Protest movements have already toppled two Ukranian governments in the last dozen years. Poroshenko's government has no interest in seeing history repeat itself.
