At a Senate hearing Oct. 3, U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis addressed questions about his views on the future of the Iranian nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to abandon. Though Mattis has no formal say in the final decision on JCPOA, his statements revealed how the Trump administration might work to increase pressure on Iran while remaining party to the JCPOA.
Upset by Iran's role in Middle Eastern conflicts and concerned that Iran hasn't conceded enough under the nuclear deal, many U.S. officials are arguing for putting more pressure on Iran. The way that pressure is applied, however, is under debate. Some say that the nuclear deal undermines U.S. strategic objectives on Iran because under it the United States has agreed to freeze its harshest economic sanctions on Iran. Those sanctions could be reinstated if the U.S. State Department, on the advice of the president, refuses to recertify the JCPOA on the Oct. 15 deadline, giving Congress a 60-day window to reintroduce sanctions. But there is the fear that failing to recertify the JCPOA — or leaving it altogether — would alienate U.S. allies who support the deal and could lead Iran to restart its nuclear program without international oversight.
During his speech, Mattis worked to clarify that if the United States were to miss the deadline to recertify the agreement, it would not be akin to pulling out of the agreement completely. The international framework of the deal would still be intact, he said. The United States could refuse to recertify the deal for two reasons: because it finds Iran noncompliant with the deal or it finds the deal opposed to U.S. national security interests. Because most evidence, including the findings of the International Atomic Energy Agency, suggests that Tehran has upheld its end of the bargain, it would be nearly impossible for the White House to justify withholding certification because of non-compliance. But it very well could refuse to certify the deal because of national security reasons. Any reinstated sanctions would add to existing sanctions on Iran not covered under the deal. In essence, if the Trump administration refuses to recertify the agreement on national security grounds, the issue would be punted to Congress, which could choose to impose additional sanctions on Iran.
Whatever the Trump administration decides, the United States will continue to pressure Iran through sanctions not related to the JCPOA and by responding harshly to any Iranian military provocation in the Middle East.
