Former Thai prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra has reportedly fled abroad just ahead of a verdict to be delivered by the supreme court on negligence charges related to a rice pledging scheme that allegedly cost the country $8 billion. Her tenure as prime minister ended in 2014 over this very same scheme. The verdict in her case has been officially postponed until Sept. 27, but authorities said they do not yet know her whereabouts. Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha said he ordered increased monitoring at all border crossings and that immigration authorities had no record of her exiting the country.
For over a decade, Yingluck and her brother, maverick politician Thaksin Shinawatra, have been at the center of political turmoil in Thailand, rooted in the kingdom's deep economic and regional divisions. Thaksin also fled abroad in 2008 following a conviction on corruption charges. The Shinawatras, under the mantle of several political parties, appealed to underrepresented rural electorates — particularly in the north and northeast — by shaking up a political scene traditionally dominated by established elites. Yingluck's popular rice program was enacted in 2011 and saw the government purchase rice at higher-than-market prices from farmers, who constitute a strong base of support for the Pheu Thai party. Conflict between the Shinawatras and the traditional establishment has dominated the country's political and economic resources. Recurring street protests, friction between established parties, and frequent government changes have characterized the country's politics over the past decade.
The brother-sister pair have largely been out of the political scene since 2014 when a military junta took control. The present government has worked to root out sources of instability by putting in place a new charter and shepherding the country through the transition to a new monarch. Perhaps most important, it has tried to eliminate the political influence of the Shinawatras.
But the family continues to remain at the center of the country's divided political landscape. Prior to the court ruling, thousands of Yingluck supporters gathered outside the court — a reminder that the verdict could rekindle unrest. A third Shinawatra sibling, sister Monthathip Kowitcharoenhul could step into the role of Pheu Thai party leader and maintain the family's presence on the political scene.
It is possible that Yingluck was allowed to quietly leave the country, but this is only a rumor and is largely speculative. Moving forward with the court proceedings enables the government to use judicial tools to further justify a crackdown. In theory, the coming elections could see a return to civilian rule in late 2018, although the new charter has granted the military a powerful position in the makeup of the government. Following her resignation in 2014 and subsequent impeachment over the rice-pledging scheme, Yingluck has been effectively banned from politics until 2020. If she is convicted in the current case, it could mean a lifetime ban from politics and up to 10 years in prison. No one knows for sure how she could have pulled it off, but Yingluck's flight and its implications show that a certain amount of uncertainty continues to exist in Thailand.
