In a move that looks — at least on the surface — like an exchange of olive branches, Iran and Saudi Arabia will soon trade diplomatic visits. Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif recently told the semiofficial ISNA news agency that visas have been issued to enable officials from both countries to inspect their respective embassies and consulates. Riyadh and Tehran severed ties last year after Saudi Arabia executed a prominent Shiite leader, Nimr al-Nimr. Meanwhile, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is rumored to be considering Khalid bin Salman, his 28-year-old younger brother who currently serves as the Saudi ambassador to the United States, as a new minister of foreign affairs. Stratfor sources suggest he would justify replacing foreign policy veteran Adel al-Jubeir by accusing him of taking too hard a line against Iran. The move would also help the newly appointed crown prince further consolidate power, particularly after sidelining his cousin, former Interior Minister Mohammed bin Nayef.
Though the upcoming diplomatic visits and a handshake between the countries' foreign ministers at a recent Organization of Islamic Cooperation conference hint at a more amicable relationship in the future, a few important questions still linger. The first is whether the trips are a sincere attempt to de-escalate the tension between the two countries. One possible explanation is that the young crown prince is pursuing a more nuanced foreign policy as he tries to balance his country's priorities abroad with managing dissent at home. An evolution in Saudi foreign policy would likely entail softening Riyadh's demands of foreign partners — something Saudi Arabia's stance toward Qatar would seem to contradict. Another possible explanation is that Saudi Arabia is attempting to ease frictions with Iran with its words while goading Tehran with its actions. The kingdom has made several moves that support this theory, including by encroaching on Iran's arc of influence in Iraq, reopening border crossings that have been closed for decades, expanding economic and diplomatic ties with Baghdad, expanding investments into ports and consulates in southern Iraq and hosting prominent independent Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr.
While the latest exchange of diplomatic visits is enough to inspire hope for a friendlier future between Iran and Saudi Arabia, it isn't enough to ease Riyadh's concerns over any emerging cooperation between Iran and Turkey in Syria and northern Iraq. Signals of warmer diplomatic ties are noteworthy insofar as they suggest that Riyadh's foreign policy could be evolving as its crown prince consolidates power. But the region's enduring geopolitical realities still suggest that the two powers will continue to compete with each other in the years ahead.
