As the Korean cauldron nears its boiling point, China is escalating trade sanctions against North Korea. On Aug. 14, China's Commerce Ministry announced it will cease imports of North Korean coal, iron ore, lead and seafood. The move signals compliance with the package of sanctions levied against North Korea by the U.N. Security Council on Aug. 5 over the country's nuclear program. Meanwhile, U.S.-Chinese trade relations are currently rocky, as Washington demonstrated a willingness to link trade issues to Chinese cooperation on North Korea. But Beijing has never been convinced the United States won't go back on its word, even if it cooperates to pressure Pyongyang. Indeed, in its first major trade action against China, Washington is expected to launch an investigation into Chinese intellectual property violations.
Even before the U.N. sanctions, Beijing reportedly took unilateral action against North Korea by suspending permits to import iron ore, a major North Korean export to China. If fully enforced, the ban could reduce the level of annual shipments from North Korea to China by 61.7 percent from 2016. The duration of the suspension, however, was not clarified and full enforcement isn't guaranteed. Nevertheless, compliance with U.N. resolutions could provide Beijing with a respite from U.S. threats at a time when its leadership faces a sensitive transition.
Despite increased threats and tighter sanctions, North Korean missile testing shows no signs of stopping. Satellite imagery released on Aug. 14 indicates North Korea may be preparing for a fresh test of submarine-launched ballistic missiles. The imagery shows a submarine partly covered with tarps that may hide recent modifications. It follows reports of elevated North Korean submarine activity over the past weeks, including the testing of a missile component at Sinpo shipyard capable of being launched by submarine. Such technology could provide the country with a way to widen its launch points and bypass certain anti-ballistic missile defenses.
Japanese, South Korean, and U.S. intelligence agencies are scrambling to gain greater insight into North Korean progress toward nuclear missile capabilities. Conflicting assessments of North Korean missile reentry technology emerged over the last few days. On Aug. 11, the CIA reportedly assessed that a reentry vehicles on North Korean Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) would likely perform adequately if flown on a normal trajectory toward targets in the continental United States. On the other hand, South Korean Vice Defense Minister Suh Choo Suk said on Aug. 13 that North Korea still needs one or two more years to master reentry technology.
The conflicting reports reflect the difficulty in assessing North Korean capabilities. That different intelligence agencies reached different conclusions is not surprising. In any case, the assessments from U.S., South Korean, and Japanese intelligence agencies converge on a timeline that puts North Korea one to two years away from a field reliable ICBM. The United States has a limited amount of time before military action against North Korea is no longer a tenable option. On Aug.13, U.S. Joint Chief of Staff Chairman Joseph Dunford said Washington was preparing military operations in case diplomacy and economic sanctions failed. For good or ill, the window for such action is closing.
