Domestic politics in the United States may influence the final decision on whether to sanction Venezuela's oil sector. Sens. John Cornyn of Texas, Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and Thad Cochran and Roger Wicker, both of Mississippi, sent a letter to President Donald Trump on Aug. 10 to urge him not to sanction Venezuela's oil sector. The letter said that U.S. Gulf Coast refiners could face “major losses” from sanctions against Venezuela's oil industry. The senators also warned that the sanctions could drive Venezuela politically closer to Russia and China.

The senators' opposition to sanctions probably stems from short-term political and economic concerns. For the U.S. economy, the longer-term impact of an import ban on Venezuelan oil would be minimal. Venezuela accounts for about 7 percent of U.S. oil imports, and the United States could make up the loss of Venezuelan imports from elsewhere. Gulf Coast refiners have also been slowing imports of Venezuelan oil over the past few months. There are probably more short-term, lower-level concerns at play, such as the potential for slowdowns in refining activity from a sudden cutoff of Venezuelan imports and the political impact that would have on congressional constituents.

Still, the opposition voiced by the legislators is important because it could ultimately sway the president's decision on whether to target Venezuelan oil production. If the Trump administration has doubts about the domestic impact of sanctions on Venezuelan oil, it will delay implementing them or avoid them entirely. Such an outcome would, in turn, give Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro more confidence to move forward with consolidating his power under the National Constituent Assembly. Without the fear of U.S. sanctions that could conceivably cripple its oil sector, the main risk to Caracas will be from domestic dissidents in the military — which Venezuela's government will continue monitoring and fending off.