(Stratfor)

After many twists and turns on a long road, the second round of Brexit negotiations faces serious potholes ahead. The talks, which began July 17, mark the first time that the European Union and the United Kingdom will discuss the particulars and technical details of the British exit from the union. (The previous round of negotiations, one month ago, were mostly a formality.) During this round, the European Union and the United Kingdom will negotiate a number of thorny issues before concluding with a news conference July 20.

The first day's agenda includes citizens' rights and the financial settlement commonly known as the divorce bill, which is the sum the United Kingdom will have to pay to settle its EU financial commitments. The United Kingdom made a gesture of goodwill last week when it conceded it will have to honor those commitments. However, the size of the sum will be contentious. Estimates range between 60 billion and 100 billion euros ($69 billion and $115 billion). The issue of citizens' rights will also be a touchy one, as both sides argue over the fate of EU nationals living in the United Kingdom and British nationals living in the European Union. Discussions on hard and soft borders — particularly the future of the border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic — will continue on the second day of negotiations.

In addition to signaling concessions on the divorce bill, members of the British government have suggested that a transition period will be necessary to give business and households time to adapt to the new reality after Brexit. On July 16, British Chancellor Phillip Hammond said that a majority of Cabinet members accept that there will be a transition period after the departure in March 2019. The length and conditions of this period are undetermined, but Hammond suggested it could be a couple of years. However, he also said the United Kingdom would not be part of the EU single market during the transition. This is key, because it means the United Kingdom will be able to have an independent migration policy, which is a major campaign promise made by the Conservative government. International Trade Secretary Liam Fox voiced hopes that the United Kingdom would be permitted to negotiate trade deals with countries outside the European Union during this transition period, but he said that this would need to be negotiated with the union first. The two sides must also decide whether the European Court of Justice will continue to have any jurisdiction in the United Kingdom to solve post-Brexit legal problems.

Despite the United Kingdom's desire to hold talks on the country's divorce from the European Union and their future relationship simultaneously, the union pushed for a two-step process. This means the United Kingdom will have to wait until October, when the European Union has said it will assess whether there has been enough progress to justify beginning negotiations on free trade, to schedule talks on free trade agreements for early next year. With Brexit meetings scheduled for one week each month, the clock is ticking for the United Kingdom.

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