Recent developments within the European Union, the United States and Russia have left Poland feeling vulnerable. So landing a visit from U.S. President Donald Trump on July 6 is being hailed by Warsaw as a diplomatic victory. And even if Trump's visit yields few concrete decisions, it offers Poland the chance to seek reassurances from the United States about Washington's commitment to the security of its North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies in Central and Eastern Europe.

Poland's foreign policy priorities have long been based on making as many international alliances as possible in order to ensure foreign support against potential aggression. Located at the heart of the North European Plain and with no clear geographic barriers defining its borders, Poland has repeatedly been invaded and has even been partitioned by its neighbors. And though Germany and Austria have represented threats in the past, Warsaw's main concern these days is Russia.

Since the fall of the Soviet Union in the late 1980s, Poland has joined several large international alliances including NATO and the European Union. But Warsaw is also interested in participating in smaller regional groups such as the Visegrad Group, along with Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, and the Weimar Triangle, along with Germany and France. And in recent years, the country has sought to increase cooperation with nations along the Black and Adriatic seas. These alliances cover a broad range of issues, from defense and trade to energy and infrastructure, but all have the same goal of providing Poland with a sense of protection against aggression, particularly from Russia.

An Anxious Warsaw

Over the past year, various developments have increased Polish concerns about the state of some of its most important alliances. Relations between Warsaw and Brussels have been lukewarm since late 2015, when the Polish government started being run by the conservative Law and Justice party, which often criticizes the European Union for domestic political reasons. The party does not support initiatives that would transfer national sovereignty to Brussels, and it sees certain decisions by the European Commission, such as a plan to distribute asylum seekers across the bloc, as the union interfering with Poland's internal affairs. But ultimately, Poland still sees EU membership as one of the pillars of its foreign policy. So while the Law and Justice party is willing to confront Brussels, it stops short of making any moves that would jeopardize Poland's membership in the union.

This explains why Warsaw is worried about recent suggestions from EU officials and governments that the union make it easier for some countries to further integrate, while others stand aside. This approach, commonly known as a "multiple-speed Europe," risks some European countries being left behind as others develop closer ties. The European Union already moves at different speeds — for example, some members use the euro and others don't — but the official goal of the bloc has long been for all member states to eventually converge. Poland fears that a multiple-speed Europe would weaken Western Europe's economic and political ties with Central and Eastern Europe, leading to a more fragile security situation for the latter region. That worry is exacerbated by an ongoing discussion about increasing military cooperation in the European Union, which could reduce the bloc's connection to NATO. Both the multiple-speed Europe and enhanced military cooperation proposals have been defended by the recently elected government of President Emmanuel Macron in France and welcomed (at least rhetorically) by Germany.

An additional source of anxiety for Warsaw is German officials' recent suggestion that the disbursement of EU cohesion funds, of which Poland is a net receiver, should be connected to political requirements. Over the past few months, EU officials have threatened to sever funding for Poland because of some of the Law and Justice party's domestic decisions, such as judiciary reform. A report issued by the European Commission on June 28 said that future disbursements of EU funds could be made conditional to countries "upholding EU core values." And the topic may arise again during next year's negotiations for the 2021-2026 EU budget. Considering that the union's next budget will probably not include British contributions, member states will potentially have to make it smaller. And while Poland is one of the fastest growing economies in Europe, EU funding is still one of the engines behind the country's economic growth, leaving it particularly vulnerable to funding changes.

The Ever-Present Russian Threat

On top of its European concerns, Warsaw must keep close ties with Washington because Poland sees the United States as its ultimate protector against potential Russian aggression. Trump's arrival in Poland happens at a time when relations between Russia and the West remain cold. The U.S. president's campaign promise to improve ties with Moscow has yet to materialize, in part because of resistance from Congress. And Moscow's relations with Europe are similarly tense, as the European Union recently renewed its economic sanctions against Russia because of the situation in Ukraine.

While Trump has toned down his anti-NATO rhetoric lately, Poland wants the United States to be more explicit about its commitment to protecting NATO allies in Central and Eastern Europe. NATO forces are already present in Poland on a rotational basis, and Warsaw would ideally like a permanent NATO presence in Poland. If that can't happen, then the country wants to make sure that the United States maintains and, if possible, increases, the commitments it has already made.

Poland's concerns about Russia also explain why it is one of the few NATO members that actually meets the alliance's target of countries spending 2 percent of their gross domestic product on defense. In December, Poland's Ministry of National Defense announced a plan to spend roughly $14 billion between 2017 and 2022 to modernize its military. The United States is one of Poland's main providers of weapons and military technology, and American companies will probably be important players in Poland's future defense procurement. Some obstacles remain; for example, negotiations are moving slowly in the Polish government's two-year-long talks with the United States about purchasing Patriot air-and-missile defense systems. But regardless, alignment with the United States on defense matters will continue to be an important goal for Poland.

A Larger Significance

Trump's visit to Poland will coincide with the Three Seas Initiative summit, a meeting of the leaders of a dozen countries from around the Baltic, Black and Adriatic seas. The main backers of the Three Seas summit are Poland and Croatia, which both want to improve the region's energy infrastructure, both to increase their interconnectivity and to reduce their dependence on Russian natural gas. In fact, Poland opened its first liquefied natural gas terminal last year, and Croatia is working on a terminal of its own. At the same time, the United States has become increasingly interested in growing its natural gas exports to the region. Poland supports proposed American sanctions against Russia that, among other things, target the North Stream 2 pipeline that would transport Russian natural gas to Germany. And in early June, Poland received its first liquefied natural gas shipment from the United States. Warsaw hopes that Trump's visit will pave the way for more deals with American producers.

Trump's participation in the Three Seas summit takes place a day before he attends the G-20 summit in Germany. So prior to heading to G-20, the president will have the chance to meet with a series of Central and Eastern European leaders that, to different degrees, are interested in increasing regional cooperation on issues such as energy and defense. Many of them, such as the Baltic states and Romania, share Poland's concerns about potential Russian aggression. Thus, Poland is hoping that the Three Seas summit will be able to shape, to a degree, Trump's perspective on such matters.

Poland sees itself as the natural leader in Central Europe, with countries such as Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia and Ukraine in its sphere of influence. It also aspires to lead the Visegrad group and become closer with Romania, consolidating a belt of countries from the Baltic to the Black seas that would keep close U.S. ties and resist Russia's influence. And, of course, Warsaw is invested in showing Western Europe that it is not isolated from the West at large, especially at a time when Brussels, Berlin and Paris are criticizing the Law and Justice party's domestic policies. So beyond more practical matters, Trump's trip has a symbolic meaning for Poland, and the country will be putting high value on the events of July 6.