After over a decade of trying to pass landmark anti-conspiracy legislation, Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) rammed the bill through the upper house of the National Diet on June 15. The law is the LDP's crowning achievement for the Diet session ending June 18, which saw numerous wins for Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's ambitious reform agenda.
The anti-conspiracy law targets nearly 300 criminal offenses, extending the powers of the authorities to prosecute those who plan the crimes and, more broadly, anyone they interpret as advancing the interests of an organized crime group. The LDP hopes the law will enable authorities to more efficiently root out potential terroristist cells and crack down on organized crime. The law also paves the way for Japan to ratify the 2000 U.N. Convention Against Transnational Organized Crime. The nation remains the only member of the leading seven industrial countries that has not ratified the pact. (The LDP tried and failed several times to introduce the law to parliament between 2003 and 2005.)
The passage of the law is a minor step forward in Abe's reform process, but it highlights the prime minister's growing ability to push bills through the Diet despite political resistance. His most recent achievement was fraught with controversy, including a rebuke from U.N. Special Rapporteur on the Right to Privacy Joseph Cannataci. Opposition leaders, legal scholars and protesters have leveled harsh criticism at the prime minister over the law's massive scope, which they see as allowing the government to crack down on legitimate political activity and to implement sweeping surveillance. In response, the ruling party has emphasized the value of the law in managing the threat of terrorist attacks, especially those against the landmark Tokyo Olympic Games in 2020. And amid pressure from coalition partner Komeito, the LDP has reduced the number of targeted crimes from an initial set of 676.
The approaching end of the Diet session marks a successful first half of the year for Abe, whose party holds a majority in the legislature. Abe's ultimate goal is a revision of Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution — the war-renouncing article — to allow for the normalization of Japan's military. Based on the accomplishments Abe has achieved so far, his party is on track to follow the timeline he announced in March: full details for its constitutional reform agenda by the end of 2017 and revisions by 2020. In March, Abe scored a successful change to his party's bylaws allowing him to remain head of the LDP — and thus prime minister — past 2018. And on June 8, the party passed a one-off law allowing Japanese Emperor Akihito to abdicate, avoiding what would have been a contentious constitutional fight with the opposition over the role of the emperor. Now, the party can focus on securing easier constitutional reforms, such as those on education and women's rights, to prime the pumps for more difficult reforms like those on Article 9. On the military front, the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force used the North Korean crisis in April as an opportunity to carry out missions to escort U.S. vessels authorized under 2015 security laws for the first time — a small step along the long path toward normalization.
The Diet will resume either at its ordinary December session or at an extraordinary session called sometime before then. But in the meantime, the LDP needs to deal with two potential challenges to the success of its agenda: the management of its political scandals and Tokyo's municipal elections on July 2. Abe's approval ratings have rebounded since the Moritomo Gakuen school scandal earlier this year, thanks to his handling of tensions on the Korean Peninsula. But to ensure solid support, the party needs to deal with the similar Kake Gakuen veterinary school scandal that broke in May, which potentially implicated Abe and his Cabinet in pressuring the Education Ministry — an embarrassing, if not necessarily illegal, move.
The Tokyo elections also mark a possible complication to the LDP's standing, though one that will not play out on the national stage for some time yet. They pit the party's candidates against Tokyo Residents First, a new right-wing group headed by a former LDP member who briefly served as minister of defense under Abe, the popular Gov. Yuriko Koike. Still, despite its new challenger, the LDP's hand remains strong, which bodes well for the party's ability to make progress when the Diet resumes session. And with lawmakers now halfway through their terms that began in 2014, Japan is entering a period during which prime ministers ordinarily declare snap elections — something very much on Abe's mind as he pursues his agenda.
