Nearly seven months in, the Iraqi offensive against the Islamic State stronghold of Mosul is coming to an end. But as the operation wraps up, tensions within the coalition fighting the jihadist group will flare once more, giving the Islamic State room to regroup in other areas of the country.
Since October 2016, Iraqi troops backed by the U.S.-led coalition against the Islamic State have cleared over 90 percent of the city. On May 12, the Iraqi Defense Ministry announced that the mission in Mosul would be complete before the Islamic holy month of Ramadan begins on May 27. Though jihadist fighters know it is only a matter of time before the city falls, they are hoping to block Iraqi troops pushing in from the northwest by setting up new lines of defense. (Iraqi forces originally hoped to take western Mosul from the south, but stiff resistance from Islamic State cells in the area has slowed their progress.) By tying up Iraqi troops in Mosul, the Islamic State intends to give its fighters elsewhere in Iraq time to reorganize.
The capture of Mosul won't bring an end to the Islamic State's presence in Iraq. The group still maintains strong bases in Anbar province, Hawija, Tal Afar and some parts of Diyala. In fact, the Islamic State has recently begun conducting well-planned attacks against Iraqi security forces in Anbar province, where it appears the group plans to position its new Iraqi headquarters. The region's desert environment — particularly Wadi Haran, a 350-kilometer (217-mile) stretch of terrain that is difficult to conduct military operations in — is an ideal setting for launching attacks and hiding. The group is familiar with the province and has already embedded itself there, fending off Iraqi troops' advances to the detriment of Baghdad's forces.
Once the Islamic State is cleared from Mosul, Iraqi troops will shift their focus to Tal Afar, reviving long-standing frictions among the Iranian-backed Popular Mobilization Forces, Iraqi government and United States. On May 12, Popular Mobilization Forces leader Qais al-Khazali claimed that his fighters would set up not only a "Shiite crescent" in the region but "a full Shiite moon," pitting the militia against Sunni powers in the region such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Jordan. The Popular Mobilization Forces already control the Tal Afar airport and are keen to participate in any offensive against Islamic State positions in the city; al-Khazali has repeatedly announced that his forces are ready and have the manpower to retake the town on their own. Iraqi officials, however, have been reluctant to take the leader up on his offer, in part because Turkey has threatened to intervene if the Popular Mobilization Forces act alone in the city. Tal Afar also boasts solid military infrastructure and a strategic position near the Iraq-Syria border, assets Baghdad does not want to risk losing to the Popular Mobilization Forces. Iraq and the United States hope to prevent the militia from continuing to move its fighters and equipment into and out of Syria as well, thereby weakening Damascus' troops.
The pressing need to seize Mosul from the Islamic State briefly united the group's disparate adversaries in Iraq. But as it becomes clear that this goal has been achieved, the contentious question of who will control the region around the Iraq-Syria border will move to the fore.
