The votes are still being counted in British Columbia, where the final result of provincial elections held May 9 could impact energy projects linking Canada's energy heartland with the province's Pacific Ocean ports. Preliminary results show that the ruling British Columbia Liberal Party appears to have fallen a seat short of a majority. Absentee votes have yet to be counted, however, and the tallies in some ridings (Canadian electoral districts) are close enough to warrant recounts, including one where the Liberal Party candidate lost by just nine votes. But if the results hold, two key energy endeavors currently in the works could run into trouble.
The Liberal Party won 43 of the 87 contested districts, just one shy of guaranteeing a parliamentary majority. Premier Christy Clark now faces the prospect of trying to form the province's first minority government since 1952. The opposition New Democratic Party (NDP) claimed 41 seats, while the Green Party won three. If the Liberal Party cannot form a minority government, it would have to reach out to the Greens or members of the NDP in a rare coalition-building effort, giving those parties a stronger role in setting provincial policy.
The opposition that both the Greens and the NDP have shown to certain energy projects could then come into play. British Columbia's Pacific ports are crucial to attempts by Canada’s inland energy producers in provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan to diversify their export markets, especially to Asia. Currently, Canadian shale oil and natural gas production is sent chiefly to U.S. markets, which are becoming increasingly saturated as domestic shale oil and natural gas production rises.
The two largest projects called into question by the election results are the Trans Mountain oil pipeline expansion and Petronas' liquid natural gas project, both of which gained federal approval in 2016. Clark has backed both projects, albeit with conditions, whereas NDP leader John Horgan has promised to pull the plug on them and review tax breaks and subsidies granted to the oil and natural gas sectors by the Liberals. The Greens oppose the projects as well.
For now, the tentative election results have left energy companies in Canada uncertain about the future of energy transport undertakings across British Columbia. Even if the Liberals manage to shepherd through the Trans Mountain and Petronas projects, the apparent growing power of the NDP and Green Party could lead to dimmer prospects for future energy infrastructure deals.
