South Korean voters headed to the polls May 9 to choose a replacement for impeached President Park Geun Hye, a contest a progressive candidate appears poised to win. In the exit polls, Democratic Party nominee Moon Jae-in raked in 41.4 percent of the vote, beating out rivals Hong Jun-pyo of the conservative Liberty Korea Party and Ahn Cheol-soo of the centrist People's Party. Though the official tally won't be finished until early May 10, Moon seems likely to win by a landslide, and his two competitors have already conceded defeat.
The presidential election comes on the heels of a lengthy corruption scandal that culminated in Park's ouster in March — the first successful impeachment of a president in the relatively young democracy. Since her removal, former Prime Minister Hwang Kyo-ahn has served as the country's interim leader. Once votes have been counted and confirmed by the National Election Commission, Hwang will step down and Moon (who Park defeated by only a narrow margin in 2012) will take his place.
The inauguration of a new leader won't bring a timely end to South Korea's protracted political impasse, though. For one, the composition of the National Assembly — and its lack of a majority party — will remain unchanged. For another, Moon won't have an opportunity to set up a transitional committee before he begins his term. As a result, he will have to court the cooperation of the country's other leftist and centrist parties. Should he win less than 50 percent of the vote, he would not have a national mandate, making it more difficult for the new president to garner the support needed to push his policies through the legislature.
The timing of the race, moreover, is less than ideal for South Korea. The country is facing many different problems, including a mounting security threat from North Korea, growing uncertainty in its relationship with the United States, and diminishing economic prospects made worse by China's retaliation for Washington's deployment of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system to South Korea. These issues, coupled with the political turmoil that has shaken up the leadership in Seoul, have deepened the nation's generational, ideological and regional divides. South Korea's traditional conservative parties have begun to fracture in the face of upheaval, giving rise to liberal and progressive alternatives that have campaigned on the promises of reforming the country's welfare and chaebol systems, crafting a more independent foreign policy, and taking a softer stance on North Korea.
The new administration's first order of business will be repairing South Korea's broken economy. Though it is Asia's fourth-largest economy, youth unemployment is hovering at 10 percent and consumer demand is persistently weak. Moon will focus his energy on improving social welfare, creating jobs and reining in the country's massive conglomerates.
Still, national security will not be far from his mind. As North Korea continues to make progress in its nuclear program, Seoul will be sure to preserve its ties to its longtime protector, the United States. But as Washington weighs its options in defense, its responses to North Korea (which so far have largely excluded the South) and a free trade agreement with Seoul, doubt about its intentions abroad will continue to rise. Coupled with Moon's advocacy to rethink Park's policy of pursuing detente with Japan, which could disrupt Washington's burgeoning trilateral alliance with Tokyo and Seoul in the Pacific, these issues could open rifts between the new administrations in the United States and South Korea — a possibility Pyongyang has taken note of and will be prepared to exploit.
