In the Organization of American States (OAS), 18 out of a total 35 member states are sponsoring a meeting to be held March 28 on the political situation in Venezuela. The meeting is an important one for Venezuela: OAS Secretary-General Luis Almagro has expressed the desire to expel Venezuela from the regional political bloc because of concerns that Venezuela is on its way to formally becoming a one-party state. Earlier in March, Almagro called on Venezuela to hold general elections in the next 30 days and to appoint a new Supreme Court and National Electoral Council. But the upcoming meeting might be an effort to buy Venezuela more time. The United States and the other nations backing the talks seem to be more willing than Almagro to give Venezuela a chance to comply with the demand for elections before applying any new sanctions, including expulsion.
Even if Venezuela is expelled from the OAS, it would have no immediate effect on the country. It would, however, incentivize Latin American countries to support any new sanctions that the United States decides to place on the country. Such measures could include further action against individual members of the Venezuelan government or heavier restrictions against government entities. State oil and natural gas company Petroleos de Venezuela, which is critical to the country's sinking economy, could also be sanctioned.
A total of 23 votes are required to force Venezuela from the OAS. And the United States isn't quite on board yet, but is instead calling for the country to hold regional elections and for real dialogue between the government and opposition. With only 18 nations sponsoring a vote against Venezuela and five additional votes needed for its expulsion, it will be difficult for the United States and its Latin American coalition to get the extra support needed for expulsion anyways.
This is because Caracas has made a concerted effort to maintain energy ties with several countries in the Americas. Specifically, the Venezuelan government has kept up flows of subsidized oil to its Caribbean partners this year, despite the extreme economic difficulties it continues to suffer at home. Most of these countries are small islands — including Haiti, St. Kitts and Nevis, the Bahamas, St. Lucia, and Jamaica — and have all relied on subsidized Venezuelan oil and refined products for more than a decade. Each of these countries currently receives around 5,000 to 6,000 barrels of oil per day. Each also has a vote in the OAS. By maintaining oil flows to them, Venezuela is ensuring they will vote in its favor in the OAS.
Even if the coalition of countries opposing Venezuela at the OAS is able to bring the issue to vote, Venezuela may yet remain in the organization thanks to these Caribbean energy links. In that event, the United States would have to rely on targeted sanctions against individuals or state entities to keep pressuring Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's administration to change how it governs.
