Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia has endeavored to maintain influence over its borderlands. Central Asia is an essential portion of this periphery. From Feb. 27 to Feb. 28, Russian President Vladimir Putin toured the Central Asian countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. All are members of the Russia-backed Collective Security Treaty Organization. Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are also part of the Eurasian Economic Union and Tajikistan is considering joining as well. Russia also maintains a substantial military presence in these countries — most notably at the Kant air base in Kyrgyzstan and the 201st military base in Tajikistan — and cooperates with local militaries in frequent exercises.
But these three countries are also in a precarious position: They are in dire economic straits because of low oil prices and exposure to a Russian economy weakened by sanctions. These pressures could inflame militant and protest movements. Russia is particularly concerned about the rise of the Islamic State and other militant groups in nearby northern Afghanistan. Moscow hopes to mitigate any instability in the region while taking the opportunity to expand its military and economic reach.
The first leg of the tour, in Kazakhstan, emphasized the close working relationship between Putin and Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev. The meeting began with an informal ski trip outside of Almaty. During the official Feb. 27 meeting, Putin commended Nazarbayev for Kazakhstan's role in hosting peace talks on the Syrian conflict. Both sides are preparing for the looming succession process in Kazakhstan, too. Nazarbayev is the longest reigning leader in the former Soviet sphere and, at age 76, recently announced plans to transfer some presidential powers to his Cabinet and to lawmakers. Moscow needs the next Kazakh leader to maintain Nazarbayev's staunch pro-Russia stance and will work closely with Astana at this critical juncture.
Putin's visit to Tajikistan centered on neighboring Afghanistan. Both sides agreed to boost collaboration on securing Tajikistan's long, porous southern border. They did not release the details of the plan, but Putin said that Russia's military base in Tajikistan would use its capabilities to assist. Moscow recently indicated that it would like to expand its military presence in the country by renting the Ayni air base near Dushanbe to add an air component to the territorial defense of the country, particularly as it relates to preventing the spillover of militancy from Afghanistan. Russia, however, denied that the talks involved discussion of expanding its military presence. Moscow did offer concessions to Dushanbe by pledging to pay closer attention to Tajik migrant concerns and to lift bans on those barred from traveling to Russia. Remittances from Russia constitute almost half of Tajikistan's GDP and Moscow is hoping to maintain this relationship to compete with growing Chinese influence.
During his visit to Kyrgyzstan, Putin discussed issues of security and economic cooperation, particularly Kyrgyzstan's role in the Eurasian Economic Union. The Russian and Kyrgyz interior ministers met as well to discuss collaboration on counterterrorism and counternarcotics. The timing of the Russian president's visit is notable as it comes amid anti-government protests that have grown in Kyrgyzstan since the arrest of opposition leader Omurbek Tekebayev over the weekend. Though still small, the demonstrations could escalate and destabilize the country. It experienced two revolutions in 2005 and 2010 and is vulnerable to clan-based divisions between its north and south. With a presidential election set for November and incumbent Almazbek Atambayev stating he will not run, Russia will keep a close eye on Kyrgyzstan.
