If its ballistic missile test over the weekend was a gauge of how the new U.S. presidential administration would react, Iran did not have to wait long to receive a response. The U.S. Department of the Treasury slapped sanctions on individuals and businesses linked with the Iranian missile program just days after the country's test-launch of a medium-range Khorramshahr ballistic missile.
A U.N. Security Council resolution issued in the wake of implementing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal in January 2016 calls on Iran not to engage in ballistic missile development. But unless Iranian missile activity can be explicitly linked to nuclear activity, the resolution includes no sanctions mechanisms. Furthermore, Russia strongly backs Iran's interpretation of the resolution that tests like the one it conducted Jan. 30 are part of its normal ballistic missile activity. This protects Iran from a U.N. Security Council vote against it. But Iran's regional adversaries, including Israel and Saudi Arabia, have lobbied Washington to take a tougher line on Iranian activities, and there is nothing in the resolution to stop the United States from imposing unilateral penalties after missile tests.
The sanctions announced Feb. 3 marked business as usual for the United States and Iran. Similar tests by Iran in October 2015 and March 2016 drew a similar response from the administration of former President Barack Obama. Iran insists that its ballistic missile program is a valid and vital component of its national defense strategy and is not linked to the JCPOA deal restricting Tehran's nuclear program. The Jan. 30 test did not violate that agreement, the administration of President Donald Trump agreed. But Iranian missile launches are a sensitive topic, nonetheless.
Iran's missile program falls under the control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which controls the country's defense policy at the behest of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The timing of the latest missile launch was likely a test of how the new U.S. leadership would respond, especially given the tough talk the Trump administration has directed Iran's way. While even the slightest violation of the JCPOA deal would likely draw a harsh response from Washington, the carefully worded statement that accompanied U.S. missile sanctions indicates that the United States does not intend to breach the nuclear deal unless it has good reason.
Ratcheting tensions with the United States come at a politically sensitive time for Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, who is seeking re-election in May. The success of his bid for a second term in office may depend on keeping the nuclear deal in place. But he has little influence over moves made by the IRGC. And despite that incentive for Rouhani to take a politically cautious line, just hours after the U.S. penalties were announced, the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs made public plans to retaliate by imposing penalties against U.S. entities that help "regional terrorist groups."
