The situation between Russia and Ukraine continues to be tense as fighting flares in eastern Ukraine. Dozens of fighters from Ukrainian security forces and Russia-backed rebel forces have been killed since conflict escalated near Avdiivka on Jan. 29. Separately, a Ukrainian An-26 transport aircraft came under fire from Russian-manned drilling rigs in the Black Sea near Crimea on Feb. 1. Ukrainian Defense Minister Stepan Poltorak said that the aircraft was "fired on with small arms" and was damaged, though the plane was able to land safely and none of the crew members were injured.

Russia does not accept the Ukrainian version of events, and the Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement that, "the Ukrainian plane made two clearly provocative very low-altitude approaches to the Russian drilling rigs." A security employee on the rig then fired four flares to prevent a possible collision. The Ukrainian government released photos showing that the aircraft was punctured by a bullet hole, and Ukrainian prosecutors said the images would be used as evidence against Russia for its occupation of Crimea and use of Ukrainian resources.

Whichever country is the provocateur, Ukraine and Russia both have reasons to maintain heightened tension and perhaps even escalate the conflict, but Russia clearly has the advantage. The United States and European Union's united front against Russia, which has existed since Ukraine's Euromaidan uprising in 2014, is at risk of breaking down. Ukraine is concerned, given that the West's pressure on Russia as well as its direct financial and security assistance to Kiev has been crucial to maintaining the status quo in the country.

With renewed tension in eastern Ukraine and Crimea, Ukraine and Russia are likely testing U.S. President Donald Trump, who has shown a willingness to more closely cooperate with Russia. He has also suggested that he might ease or lift U.S. sanctions against Russia in return for collaboration in other areas, such as nuclear arms control. Russia is animated by the prospect, while Ukraine is worried about losing U.S. backing. The Wall Street Journal also reported Feb. 1, citing unnamed sources, that an upcoming NATO meeting with Ukraine over ballistic missile defense plans in Romania would be cancelled because of fears of provoking the Russian government. Ukraine has denied that the meeting was even scheduled, but it is nonetheless alarmed that the West might be reducing its support for Ukraine and increasing its cooperation with Russia.