The center-left French Socialist Party held primary elections Jan. 29, about three months ahead of presidential elections. Benoit Hamon won easily, with 58 percent of the vote over Manuel Valls' 42 percent. Ideologically, the Socialist Party falls between Emmanuel Macron's En Marche movement on its right and Jean-Luc Melenchon's Left Front on its left. Because Hamon is closer to the left on that spectrum, more conservative Socialist Party supporters could choose to support Macron in the first round of elections instead. Hamon has proposed to campaign with the Left Front and the Green Party to build a common ruling majority in parliament; neither has responded.

If Hamon cannot build a coalition with other leftist parties, the Socialist Party won't be able to advance to the second round of elections. According to a Kantar Sofres-One Point poll published Jan. 29, National Front's Marine Le Pen is campaigning first, with 25 percent approval; Republican Francois Fillon is second, with 22 percent approval; and Macron is a close third, with 21 percent approval. Hamon is trailing with 15 percent approval rating, just ahead of Left Front's Melenchon, with 10 percent approval. Best estimates indicate that Le Pen's National Front will reach the runoff election but will then be defeated by either Fillon or Macron.

Until recently, Fillon was projected to be the most likely winner of the presidency. But Macron gradually rose to rival him, and now that the left-leaning Hamon has won the Socialist Party's primary, Macron could get a bigger boost from more conservative Socialist Party voters. Moreover, Fillon could be damaged by revelations that his wife was paid with parliamentary funds over the course of several years for a job that some allege she never conducted. State prosecutors have started preliminary investigations into the matter.

The elections will test the French electoral system, which is designed to prevent extremist parties from winning power. As a wave of nationalism sweeps the globe, an election that resulted in a National Front victory would have consequences. The party is campaigning on a platform of economic protectionism and is promising to hold a referendum on France's membership in the eurozone. If it wins, it will accelerate the dissolution of the European Union and its currency zone.