Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot leaders met in Geneva on Jan. 9 to begin negotiating an end to the island's decadeslong division. They will be joined on Jan. 12 by representatives from Greece, Turkey and the United Kingdom, the three countries charged with guaranteeing peace in Cyprus.
Since 1974, the island has been split between the internationally recognized Greek Cypriot republic in the south and the Turkish Cypriot state in the north. (Only Turkey recognizes the latter.) This week, the two parties will have to tackle several significant issues if they hope to heal their divide. The first is which areas of a reunited Cyprus each community will control. Closely connected to this quandary is the question of what reparations will be issued to Greek Cypriots who lost their property when Turkey invaded the island's northern regions. Officials will also have to decide the legal status of some 150,000 settlers who came from mainland Turkey to live in Cyprus' north.
No less important is the matter of what kind of government the reunited country should have. As of now, there are roughly 850,000 residents in Greek Cyprus and only 300,000 in Turkish Cyprus. Turkish Cypriots would like to see a presidency that rotates between the two communities to ensure that they are equally represented — a proposal the Greek Cypriots have so far rejected. Of course, this could change if Turkish Cypriots were to make some territorial concessions to their southern neighbors. But during the last round of reunification talks in November 2016, the two sides could not agree on a new map of the island.
Deciding on the presence of military troops will also be difficult. Turkish Cypriots want Ankara to maintain forces (currently around 30,000 soldiers) on the reunified island to protect them. But Greek Cypriots and their backers in Athens have demanded that Turkey withdraw its troops. A reunification plan presented in 2004 suggested a progressive removal of Turkish forces that a new proposal could mimic. Even so, the United Kingdom will probably refuse to abandon its military bases on the island, though London has hinted at its willingness to relinquish some territory.
Should Cyprus' two parts reunite, it would open the door for Turkey to import natural gas from the island and Israel. It would also give Ankara an opportunity to improve its ties with the European Union and reduce its reliance on Russian energy supplies. However, Turkey will likely try to ensure that it retains some degree of influence over Cyprus so that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is not perceived as having "lost" the island. Meanwhile Russia, which has close cultural and economic ties to both Greek Cyprus and Greece, will probably try to keep the reunited island from becoming a regional natural gas hub and joining NATO.
A reunification deal would be a coup for the European Union, particularly at a time when the bloc needs a diplomatic victory after a decade of political and economic crises on the Continent. But finalizing a reunification agreement will not be an easy feat. Any deal would have to be ratified in separate referendums among the Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot communities, a requirement that caused a 2004 reunification plan backed by the United Nations to fail after Greek Cypriots voted against it.
