Hopes for a new cease-fire effort in Yemen arose earlier this week after U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry's two-day visit to Oman, but they were quickly dashed. Given the heavy fighting still raging in Yemen and the disagreements among members of the Saudi-led coalition backing embattled President Abd Rabboh Mansour Hadi, the failure of the renewed push for peace was hardly surprising. Kerry announced Nov. 15 that representatives of the Houthi alliance fighting to supplant Hadi had agreed, after an hourslong meeting, to a cease-fire and to join a national dialogue working toward a unity government. But the tentative step toward a cease-fire, reported by the media at midnight on Nov. 17, came and went without a notable pause in the violence.
Hadi's foreign minister, Abdulmalik al-Mekhlafi, said the Yemeni government rejected the overtures and had not agreed to any new dialogues or plans for a unity government. He also questioned the relevance of the talks between Kerry and the Houthis, saying that no coalition representatives had been present. The refusal of the Hadi government to engage in a national dialogue stems from its reticence to cede power without guarantees that the Houthis will give up their weapons and territory. In addition, it rejects the legitimacy of the Supreme Political Council put together by the Houthis and exiled President Ali Abdullah Saleh's General People's Congress (GPC) party to stand as part of a unity government.
Disagreements over strategy among the Saudi-led coalition supporting Hadi have kept the cease-fire discussions from gaining traction as well. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates do not see eye to eye on how to manage their southern neighbor's civil war. Stratfor contacts indicate that in recent months, Saudi Arabia has worked to erode the United Arab Emirates' influence in Aden, the Yemeni port city it helped to recapture last year. One of the ways in which the Saudis wield influence in Yemen is through the Islamist Islah party, which commands power in Aden and elsewhere. But the United Arab Emirates is opposed to Riyadh using the group to advance its own agenda, which has meant Abu Dhabi's sway has declined in areas of the country where the Islah party is dominant.
The quiet fight for influence between the Saudi and Emirati governments is indicative of both countries’ security concerns and differing views on how to approach them in the long term. The United Arab Emirates reportedly supported the latest U.N.-backed peace plan even though Saudi Arabia did not, a stance that was clearly reflected in al-Mekhlafi's refusal to sign off on any new peace process.
As attempts to broker peace talks falter, violence in Yemen continues unabated. Combat on the Yemen-Saudi Arabia border has remained constant, despite Riyadh's concerns about the conflict spilling over into its territory. Houthi fighters are moving closer to the Saudi border city of Najran, which suffers from occasional collateral damage from crossfire. Farther south, fighting continues to rage in the city of Taiz, where casualties often include civilians. Within Taiz, fighters allied with Hadi government forces have engaged in intermittent battles with Houthi-GPC forces on multiple fronts. Fighting this week centered on an attempt to wrest control of the Republican Palace to the east of Taiz from Houthi forces. Although the pace of coalition airstrikes reportedly eased earlier in the week, bombings in Taiz, Saada province and the capital of Sanaa have continued unabated.
