In a little more than a month, Italian voters will decide whether to approve constitutional reforms that would change the way the country is governed. The plebiscite on Dec. 4 will ask the public to approve a plan put forth by Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's government to reduce the attributions of the Senate and grant additional powers to the lower chamber of Parliament. But the reforms, intended to create more stable governments and sever the ties between political uncertainty and financial fragility in Italy, could actually create more instability. In recent days, the referendum itself has been beset by uncertainty — including suggestions that the vote could be postponed and accusations of Russian meddling in the campaign.
Renzi's government has spent significant political capital promoting the reforms. The prime minister went so far as to pledge that he would resign if the reforms were rejected. Though he has recently tried to walk back that promise, opposition parties are campaigning against the reforms as an opportunity to precipitate Renzi's resignation.
So far, opinion polls show that Renzi could lose the vote. This is making the government nervous at a time when Italy's economic recovery is still incipient and some of its banks are vulnerable. On Wednesday, Interior Minister Angelino Alfano suggested that the referendum could be postponed, citing recent earthquakes in central Italy. The government, he said, does not want to delay the vote, but doing so could allow it to focus on reconstruction efforts. Renzi has insisted that the vote will go ahead as planned, but other members of his Democratic Party have echoed Alfano's statements.
Though the referendum's failure probably would indeed prompt Renzi to resign, it would not necessarily lead to early elections. Political parties in Parliament could appoint a caretaker or a technocratic government, as they did in 2011, when former European Commissioner Mario Monti was appointed prime minister. The goal there would be to avoid early elections at a time when the anti-establishment Five Star Movement party's popularity rivals that of the Democratic Party. It would also be aimed at calming markets at a time when several Italian banks are trying to recapitalize themselves and reduce their burden of nonperforming loans. But even without early elections, the fall of the government would create more doubts about the future of the country with the second-highest ratio of debt to gross domestic product in the eurozone.
To make things more complicated, Italian media have accused Russia of interfering with the referendum campaign. On Wednesday, La Stampa, one of Italy's largest daily newspapers, alleged that Russian-sponsored media are presenting a distorted image of Italy's political situation in order to hurt Renzi. La Stampa said Russia Today recently misrepresented a pro-reform rally in Rome as one opposing the reforms. The newspaper also suggested that Moscow could be cooperating with opposition parties, most notably the Five Star Movement, to weaken Renzi.
Regardless of the accuracy of those allegations, Moscow does routinely cooperate with political parties in Europe as part of a strategy to disseminate pro-Russian views and exploit divisions within the European Union. Russia's ties are particularly strong with nationalist, right-wing and Euroskeptic parties, which are critical of the European Union and defend conservative views on social issues. Members of parties such as France's National Front and Italy's Northern League often visit Moscow to discuss politics. These parties are also rumored to have received Russian financial support. In 2014, for example, the National Front received a 9 million-euro ($10 million) loan from a Russian bank.
These tactics are the same as those used by the Soviet Union during the Cold War, with the difference that instead of left-wing parties and publications, Moscow is now siding with Europe's right-wing and anti-establishment groups. Russian media outlets often work as part of this strategy by publishing Russian propaganda in Western Europe. Moscow is exploiting the growing mistrust of mainstream political parties and media in Europe to support anti-system parties and alternative media. The European Union is so concerned with the flood of Russian propaganda that it recently set up a special team to study and counter Moscow's efforts.
In recent months, Italy's main opposition parties have started to criticize Renzi's foreign policy. The Five Star Movement and the Northern League both oppose establishing a free trade agreement between the European Union and the United States, a pact that the government in Rome supports. Though the Five Star Movement traditionally focuses on domestic issues, party leader Beppe Grillo recently denounced Italy's cooperation with NATO on military patrols in the Baltic area and accused Rome of surrendering national sovereignty to the military alliance. The Northern League and the Five Star Movement also criticized Renzi for the economic impact that EU sanctions on Russia are having on Italy. Renzi has also been critical of the sanctions, but his government has repeatedly voted for their continuation, partially under pressure from the United States.
Ironically, a political crisis could actually weaken Italian resistance to sanctions, at least in the short run. The European Union will decide the future of its sanctions regime against Russia by late January. Should the Italian government collapse in early December, the next administration in Rome might not be interested in clashing with Germany or the United States over the sanctions. A technocratic government in charge of passing economic and political reforms, or a caretaker government in charge of organizing early elections, would probably not be interested in changing Italy's foreign policy, which remains pro-EU and pro-NATO. But those positions could change over time, depending on the evolution of political events.
Russia has traditionally hedged its bets in Italy, keeping good ties with Renzi but also preserving its ties with former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi as well as with the Northern League and the Five Star Movement. Moscow likely wants to ensure that, no matter what happens with the Dec. 4 referendum, Russia will maintain its connections with future Italian governments. Those connections may not lead to dramatic changes in Italian policy, but they may influence decisions by the government on areas that are important to Russia.
