As the European Union prepares to decide whether to keep sanctions against Russia in place, its members' differing opinions on the issue have been put on full display. On Oct. 11, Ukrainian Interior Minister Arsen Avakov chastised French President Francois Hollande for his recent remarks on the implementation of the Minsk protocols. According to Avakov, Hollande suggested that elections in the separatist region of Donbas should be held once a cease-fire is in place and troops have disengaged from the line of contact in eastern Ukraine, but before Russian soldiers have withdrawn from the region and Ukraine's control of its border with Russia has been restored. If true, this position would contradict Ukraine's, which stipulates that all of the Minsk protocol's security components must be fulfilled before Kiev will make political concessions to its eastern territories.

The timing of the statements is notable, for they come as the Continental bloc starts to deliberate whether it will extend or ease sanctions against Russia by January 2017. Ukraine — along with the United States and more assertive EU states such as Poland and the Baltic states — has pushed to leave sanctions in place until Moscow and the Ukrainian separatists it backs have abided by all of the Minsk protocol's security provisions. But other EU members, particularly France and Germany, have pressured Kiev to make more political concessions to jumpstart progress in settling the Ukrainian conflict. Ukraine has resisted this camp's appeals so far, pointing out that even basic cease-fire and withdrawal deals along the line of contact have yet to be put into practice. And Germany, the European Union's key decision-maker on sanctions, has outwardly maintained that all Minsk measures must be enacted before sanctions will be lifted.

The gap between the two groups is unlikely to be bridged by the end of the year. The window to make real progress in Ukraine before the EU sanctions vote and before the end of U.S. President Barack Obama's presidency is closing fast, and tensions in Ukraine's east have not died down. At the same time, friction between Russia and the West is increasing in Syria, where the breakdown of a cease-fire deal and the intensification of Moscow's air campaign against Aleppo have raised talk of increasing Western sanctions against Russia. Ironically, Moscow has tried before to use progress in the Syrian and Ukrainian conflicts to improve its bargaining position with the United States and Europe. But now, as progress has stalled in both theaters, the West appears likely to keep — if not expand — its sanctions regime against Russia.