Germany's largest political parties are once again losing ground to smaller forces in the right and the left. In a regional election held in Berlin on Sept. 18, the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) received 21.6 percent of the vote, down 6.7 percent from the previous election in 2011. German Chancellor Angela Merkel's center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) received 17.6 percent of the vote, 5.7 percent less than in 2011. Meanwhile, the left-wing Die Linke obtained 15.6 percent, a 3.9 percent increase from the previous vote; while the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) obtained 14.2 percent in its electoral debut in the region. Finally, the Greens obtained 15.2 percent of the vote, down 2.4 percent.
This was the fifth regional election Germany held this year. In most of them, the CDU and the SPD, which currently govern together in a coalition at the federal level, lost ground to smaller parties. The strong performance in Berlin by AfD shows that voters are still worried about the influx of migrants in the country. But the strong performance of Die Linke and the Greens also reveal that, beyond the issue of refugees, voters want to send a message of frustration with the mainstream political forces.
While Berlin is a relatively small district of 3.5 million people in a country of more than 80 million, the regional result (with five parties obtaining more than 14 percent of the vote) is a symptom of the broader electoral fragmentation in the country. Polls at the national level show that combined support for the CDU and the SPD is at around 55 percent, considerably below the combined 67 percent the two parties obtained in the 2013 federal election. Alternative for Germany, which failed to reach the 5 percent electoral threshold needed to enter the Bundestag in 2013, is currently polling at around 13 percent.
Traditionally, Germany has been ruled by either the CDU or the SPD (with the help of a junior coalition partner) or, as has been the case since 2013, by a grand coalition of the two largest parties. The next federal election, which should take place no later than October 2017, could produce a highly fragmented parliament. This could reduce the next government's room for maneuver, as the administration that emerges from the federal election could be in control of fewer seats in parliament than its predecessors.
This, in turn, would make policy-making more difficult, especially when it comes to sensitive or controversial issues. During the current legislature, Merkel has overcome rebellions by members of her own government over issues such as the bailout program for Greece because of her comfortable majority in parliament. This could prove more difficult for future governments, with an impact on not only Germany's domestic politics, but also on its role as the European Union's political leader.
