The heads of government of the European Union will meet Friday in Bratislava for an informal summit, the first to be held without a representative from the United Kingdom present. Their main goal is to show unity at the continental level after the Brexit referendum. But fulfilling that aim will not be easy because, as is often the case with the bloc, though its members agree that the union is in trouble, they cannot agree on a strategy to counter its increasing fragmentation. Since the Bratislava summit will be informal, and the United Kingdom (which is still a full EU member) will not be present, no formal vote or binding decision on reforming the bloc should be expected.
In preparation for the summit, governments and EU officials held several meetings during the summer, but in many cases these encounters showed that the Continent's internal divisions are as deep as ever. Southern European countries, worried about high unemployment and low economic growth in their region, would like the European Union to spend more on infrastructure and job creation. They would also like to soften EU rules on debt and deficits to allow their governments to increase spending and reduce taxes after years of austerity. Southern EU members held their own summit in Greece on Sept. 9, where they demanded policies to generate economic growth and employment.
But countries in the north have different priorities. Though the European Union has taken a pragmatic course in recent years, and countries in Southern Europe have repeatedly been given more time to reduce their deficits, Northern Europe does not want the rules to be completely rewritten. For instance, on Sept. 12, Finland's finance minister criticized the union for being too soft on Portugal's deficit, which has remained consistently above targets for reduction set by Brussels. For Northern Europe, the most pressing issue is not public spending but security, especially after last year's migration crisis and the recent terrorist attacks in France, Belgium and Germany.
Countries in Central and Eastern Europe see the Brexit decision as an opportunity to weaken the influence of central institutions in Brussels and even return some policy decisions to national governments. The members of the Visegrad Group (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) are working on their own proposals for EU reform, which they expect to discuss in Bratislava. Despite recent efforts to strengthen ties between Western and Eastern Europe, tensions remain. Only days before the Bratislava summit, the foreign affairs minister of Luxembourg suggested that Hungary be suspended or even expelled from the European Union because of its "massive violation" of the bloc's fundamental values. On Sept. 13, the European Parliament held a debate on the rule of law in Poland, during which the Polish administration in Warsaw was heavily criticized. Neither Hungary nor Poland are willing to leave the European Union, but the governments in Budapest and Warsaw often use foreign criticism to strengthen their domestic political positions.
In addition to these strategic and ideological divisions, many EU members are also dealing with complex political situations at home. Nationalist and Euroskeptic parties are strong in France, Italy, the Netherlands and Germany, which limits the interest of their governments in discussing policies to deepen the process of EU economic integration.
Against this backdrop, structural issues such as treaty change, greater eurozone integration or risk-sharing measures in the financial sector will not be on the agenda in Bratislava. EU members have, however, found a topic that could allow for some consensus: defense cooperation. In recent weeks, the German and French governments have each issued reports calling for more pooling of resources, including establishing a joint EU command headquarters for civilian and military missions, developing joint land, air and sea transport capabilities to complement EU missions, and increasing training coordination among military officers across member states.
Governments including Italy and the Czech Republic have backed these proposals, and EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini recently called on EU members to build "strategic autonomy." These initiatives do not approach the concept of a "European army," but they show that EU members understand that financial and economic integration is unpopular in the Continent and that the Brexit will leave the European Union without one of its main military stalwarts.
These proposals are not without their complications, however. While a pooling of military capabilities and resources might make sense as a response to years of spending cuts in defense by EU members, national sovereignty and conflicting national interests would probably remain an obstacle to closer military integration. This could be particularly true in sensitive areas such as defense and national security, which are at the core of a country's sovereignty. At some point, these plans, which would have to be ratified by national parliaments, would be subject to criticism by Euroskeptic and nationalist parties and by the general population. This could lead to diluting any plans or renegotiating parts of them. There are also strategic concerns among some member states. The Baltic countries, which are particularly worried about potential Russian aggression, have expressed skepticism about the idea of closer EU military integration. Latvia's foreign minister recently said his government does not want these plans to compete with NATO. For Central and Eastern European states worried about Russia, U.S. security guarantees via NATO take precedence over an EU-centric defense union.
EU governments face even more immediate problems. Europe's main political and economic players, Germany and France, will hold general elections in 2017. Depending on the result of an upcoming Italian referendum on constitutional reforms, Italy may also have to hold elections if the national government resigns. Domestic political calculations, therefore, will temper their attitudes at the summit. More important, some of the governments meeting in Bratislava may not even be in power within six months, which means that any understandings reached on Friday may face future revisions.
